Healey administration projected shelter costs could reach $1.1B in FY24, court docs say

The Healey administration expects it could spend up to $1.1 billion this fiscal year on emergency shelters and associated costs for local homeless and migrant families if caseload trends continue and space is readily available, according to court documents.

In a signed affidavit filed in Suffolk County Superior Court, Administration and Finance Assistant Secretary Aditya Basheer laid out the projected cost as a judge weighed whether to put a hold on a plan to cap the number of families in emergency shelter, which has swelled this year partly because of a surge in migrant arrivals.

“If family shelter net caseload continues to expand at a rate consistent with the activity of the last several months, the state projects a shelter caseload of approximately 13,500 families by the end of (fiscal year 2024),” Basheer wrote. “This would represent a 187% increase over the caseload contemplated in the FY24 budget. This projected caseload would result in family shelter and associated programs costs of approximately $1.1 billion in FY24.”

Lawmakers on Beacon Hill shuttled $325 million to the emergency shelter program in the fiscal 2024 state budget to support 4,100 families, and Gov. Maura Healey has asked the Legislature for $250 million more in a budget that closes the books on the previous fiscal year.

But state lawyers have said the emergency shelter program has $535 million “in contract commitments” to shelter and other service providers through the end of fiscal 2024. The program is expected to quickly run out of money, and even into the red.

The state’s housing department is attempting to limit the number of families in emergency shelter to 7,500, a move that has drawn a legal challenge from Lawyers for Civil Rights, which argues the Healey administration did not follow proper procedures laid out in state law.

There were 7,388 families in emergency shelters as of Tuesday, according to state data, with 3,687 in hotels and motels, 3,683 in traditional sites, and 63 in temporary shelters like Joint Base Cape Cod and a Quincy college dorm building.

Graphs included in Basheer’s affidavit also show the state expects about 1,000 families to enter emergency shelter each month through the end of fiscal 2024 — assuming the system was constantly expanded.

“Along with the explosive growth in shelter demand over the past year, there has been a widening gap between ‘entries’ (the number of families entering shelter each month) and ‘exits’ (the number of families exiting each month,” Basheer said. “This means that the current levels of pressure on the emergency assistance program are trending to be long-term in nature, with the families entering shelter today expected to remain until at least FY25.”

The Healey administration informed state lawmakers of that projection earlier this year in a series of meetings on migrant arrivals and the emergency shelter system.

Lawyers argued in court Tuesday over whether the state has enough money to continue funding shelter expansion — often through the use of hotels and motels — if a pause was put in place, with state attorneys pointing to the likelihood of a deficit.

“What they ask is not a preservation of the status quo, but, instead, the continued procurement of EA shelter placements to meet new entrants numbering between 20 and 50 additional families per day, despite insufficient appropriations to do so,” Attorney General Andrea Campbell’s office wrote in court documents.

Lawyers for Civil Rights laid out a grim picture of what would happen if a temporary pause on the capacity plan was not put in place — migrants and homeless families sleeping outside as cold weather sets in.

“Without an injunction, families, children, and pregnant women who are entitled to emergency shelter under the law will be denied a roof over their heads — forced to sleep on the streets, in cars, and in other unsafe situations. There is no other way to put it. That is the grim reality,” the group wrote in court documents. “The harms that will befall them are harsh and irreparable.”