Without even participating in Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate, former President Donald Trump walked away the clear winner, as none of the eight other candidates who were on stage in Milwaukee did anything to close the gap with the GOP frontrunner, who was barely even discussed.
Put another way, the first Republican debate was more notable for Trump’s absence – both physically and as the target of attacks – rather than anything that other candidates did or said, as no candidate did anything to stand out from the pack or weaken Trump’s commanding lead over the rest of the field.
And, while it is too early for post-debate polling, one should expect little, if any, decrease in Trump’s lead.
Indeed, even when the candidates did discuss Trump – whose interview with former Fox host Tucker Carlson aired at the same time on X (formerly Twitter) – they mostly offered weak criticism, clearly afraid of alienating the party’s base and drawing Trump’s ire. When asked whether they would support Trump if he were to be convicted in any of his many legal cases, only Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson said they would not, drawing boos.
To be sure, going into the debate, expectations should have been tempered. Trump leads his GOP rivals by 41-points according to the RealClearPolitics average, and just one other candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is even polling in double digits.
That said, there were times when various candidates attempted to make the case for why they should be the party’s nominee, even if none were strong enough to remotely threaten Trump’s path to the nomination. In particular, DeSantis, Pence, Christie, and Haley stood out, as did Vivek Ramaswamy.
One of the biggest questions going into the debate was whether DeSantis would capitalize on the chance to reverse his campaign, which has struggled amid sagging poll numbers, high-level staff turnovers, and donors abandoning him over his hard-right swing on positions such as abortion and gun rights in Florida.
The Florida Governor mostly stayed on message, touting his landslide 2022 win and his record in the Sunshine State, however DeSantis noticeably shied away from taking on Trump by name, opting for general calls for the party to “look forward” before mostly fading into the background as other, more charismatic candidates made their case.
Former VP Mike Pence clearly tried to associate himself with the accomplishments of the Trump administration, while criticizing his former boss for his actions and behavior surrounding Jan. 6, 2021. Pence also showed some fire by demanding DeSantis “answer the question” when DeSantis initially tried dodging whether Pence had done the right thing in certifying the 2020 election.
The former VP also channeled Reagan-esque Republican principles of America’s place as the “arsenal of democracy” vis-à-vis supporting Ukraine against Russia’s full-scale invasion, a position antagonistic to the MAGA crowd.
However, Pence is arguably the furthest to the right of any candidate – save for Tim Scott – on abortion, and his calls for a national abortion ban are sure to alienate moderates and Republicans who have seen anti-abortion measures fail in multiple states.
Christie, who essentially has a better chance to be Attorney General in a second Biden administration than he does at securing the Republican presidential nomination, often seemed like the straight-talking attack dog he wants to be. He chastised Donald Trump’s conduct and attacked Ramaswamy over his inexperience and flip-flopping on Trump.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley made a well-rounded case for her candidacy, especially on foreign policy and abortion. She slammed Pence’s proposed national abortion ban, saying, “No Republican president can ban abortions any more than a Democrat president can ban all those state laws.”
Further, Haley, who served as Ambassador to the UN under Trump also took Ramaswamy to task over his calls to end U.S. support for Ukraine, and lack of foreign policy experience, saying Ramaswamy has, “No foreign policy experience, and it shows,” drawing raucous applause from the crowd.
For his part, Ramaswamy, the 38-year old biotech entrepreneur clearly reveled in being the center of attention and the one taking the most shots from other candidates. He has been climbing in polls, but remains at just 7%, hampered by a low-national profile and no governing experience. However, his profile is likely to see some improvement, as he sparred with Christie, Haley, DeSantis, and seemingly everyone on stage.
Ramaswamy offered little in terms of substance, even seeming arrogant at times, but in a primary election dominated by personality over policies, he held his own, did not wilt under the lights of his first-ever debate, and succeeded in bolstering his image as the young, energetic, political outsider who deserves to be taken seriously.
Moreover, Ramaswamy cemented himself as Trump’s most vocal defender among the other candidates, even challenging Mike Pence to, “Join me in making a commitment that on day one you would pardon Donald Trump” and declaring Trump “The best president of the 21st century.”
Ultimately, while many of the candidates on the stage in Milwaukee did their best to convince Republican voters that they should be the party’s nominee, it is incredibly unlikely that any of them did enough to seriously challenge Trump, who despite not being on the debate stage, walked away the winner, and remains poised to secure a third straight GOP presidential nomination.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
