Patriots-Dolphins film review: The simple reason Bill Belichick and Mac Jones lost again at Miami

Thanks for reading!
Your email is already registered. Please subscribe to Boston Herald to continue.
Get Standard Digital access to enjoy this article and more
Already a subscriber?

For the ninth time in their last 11 trips, the Patriots lost at Miami.

Mike McDaniel’s offense out-flanked and out-gunned Bill Belichick’s defense. The Dolphins dictated terms to the Pats offense at the line of scrimmage. All of this took place Sunday, but Miami laid the foundation for its sixth win in the last seven series meetings during the last few offseasons.

Over the last three years, the Dolphins successfully stockpiled talent in a way the Patriots have failed to for years. That talent gap manifested in a flexibility and crucial margin for error Sunday.

Despite missing four starting offensive linemen for most of the game, the Dolphins passed at will; short, intermediate or long, to the left, right or over the middle. Whatever they wanted. Tua Tagovailoa flipped a bad first-half interception, just like Mac Jones, yet knew he could still comfortably control the game in a double-digit win.

Why?

Because Tagovailoa knew his defense, stocked with Pro Bowlers and former first-round picks, would buy him time. Not that his offense needs it. The Dolphins scored the very next drive after Tagovailoa’s pick, when he launched a 42-yard bomb to Tyreek Hill, and eventually out-gained the Pats by almost a 2:1 ratio.

But for the Patriots offense, life is hard. Everything takes time and demands precision. Their talent leaves them no optionality, no margin for error.

The entire passing game consists of short to intermediate throws. They generate no explosive runs. They have no Plan B.

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) is sacked by Miami Dolphins linebacker Jaelan Phillips (15) during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

Against them, Miami’s defense had the luxury of shutting off one side of the field by parking new All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey on Jones’ left basically all day. By game’s end, Jones had completed as many passes in that direction to Ramsey as he did his teammates. His interception led directly to a 10-point deficit, a death knell for the Patriots.

Defensively, the Pats’ talent disadvantage left them at Miami’s mercy. Hill and Jaylen Waddle pull coverage toward them pre-and post-snap, motioning at the highest rates in the league. Defending the Dolphins means changing on the move, on their time and at their speed.

So, the Patriots majored in basic zone coverage. They hardly blitzed. They played basic, static defenses on early downs; the same formula most Miami opponents have followed.

And yet the stress of keeping up with the Dolphins’ speed ultimately broke them in the final minutes, when Waddle coasted to a 31-yard touchdown with no defender in sight. The score clinched Miami’s fourth win of 14 points or more this season alone. The talent-starved Patriots have four of those, too — in the last year and a half.

Leveling this division series, which has become as lopsided as most any in the AFC the last few years, will require matching Miami’s talent in the coming offseasons. That, of course, will take time.

For now, the Pats can address these problems as they play out a lost year without wondering why they lost again on Sunday:

Mac Jones

19-of-29 for 161 yards, 2 TDs, INT

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) lays on the field after being sacked by Miami Dolphins linebacker Jaelan Phillips (15) during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

Accurate throw percentage: 70.4%

Under pressure: 2-of-8 for 26 yards, 3 sacks

Against the blitz: 1-of-2, 2 yards

Behind the line: 6-of-6 for 20 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 10-of-13 for 77 yards, TD

10-19 yards downfield: 3-of-8 for 64 yards, TD, INT

20+ yards downfield: N/A

Notes: Blah.

Jones did little to power a winning effort Sunday, hitting just one tight-window throw and declining to rip a single deep pass for a second straight game. As always, he proved sharp underneath, which sustained the Patriots the week before against the Bills (when he was also appreciably more accurate). There were three major differences between those outings: Jones had more time (posting a 2.2 second snap-to-throw average versus Buffalo and 2.51 at Miami), more injured receivers and a big, bad interception before halftime.

Jones grossly overestimated his arm talent in that moment, skying a 19-yard, cross-field throw a half-beat too late against future Hall of Fame cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The interception represented at least a 6-point swing, possibly 10.

Jones even had a chance to atone at the start of the third quarter, when Miami gifted the Patriots a fumble on first play from scrimmage. But standing at the Dolphins’ 14, Jones took a third-down sack after staring down Rhamondre Stevenson in the flat, while Demario Douglas found open space across the back of the end zone for a possible touchdown.

It’s a tough balance. Jones knows he often has little time behind a porous offensive line, so jumping at checkdowns to Stevenson makes sense. No NFL quarterback is envious of his current situation.

But failing to keep defenses honest downfield for multiple series, and now games, allows opponents to play downhill and squeeze routes underneath. It’s a tightrope walk every week for Jones and this offense. Jones crossed safely last week against the Bills.

He fell off Sunday.

Critical areas

Offense

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick holds back New England Patriots offensive lineman Trent Brown (77) from joining a scuffle between players on the field during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

Game plan

Player stats

Notes

New England Patriots wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) celebrates after scoring a touchdown as tight end Mike Gesicki (88) reacts during the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Defense

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick yells at NFL side judge Dominque Pender on the field during an NFL football game between the against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

Game plan

Player stats

Notes

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr. (11) scores a touchdown under pressure from New England Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson (29) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Studs

S Kyle Dugger

Teammates celebrate an interception by New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (23) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

An interception, one sack and a hurry. Even if Dugger was at fault on Miami’s knockout touchdown in the fourth quarter, he kept the Patriots within relative reach as much as anyone.

LB Jahlani Tavai

Tavai continues to wear as many hats as any player on Belichick’s defense. He tallied two hurries and a pass breakup.

Duds

CB J.C. Jackson

The Dolphins picked on Jackson like a little brother who went unpunished for a successful prank. With all that attention, he allowed two touchdowns and committed pass interference.

LT Trent Brown

He fought through ankle and knee injuries, which must be factored here. But four allowed is a bad day at the office for any offensive lineman.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends.  

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs.

View more on Boston Herald