The number of eligible migrant and local homeless households in the state’s emergency shelter system could soar to more than 13,000, a top housing official warned.
Housing and Livable Communities Secretary Ed Augustus said the system’s expansion rate is “unsustainable” just as a judge was weighing whether to temporarily pause a Healey administration plan to cap the number of families in shelters at 7,500.
Low turnover rates and the push to find enough units to accommodate everyone is behind the high estimate, he added.
“At current rates of entries into and exits from emergency assistance shelter, the number of eligible families in shelter would continue to increase to more than 13,000 households in shelter by fiscal year end (if sufficient shelter units could be found to accommodate that many households),” Augustus wrote.
He added: “With the average length of stay growing each month (averaging 13.6 months as of the first quarter of fiscal year 2024), the pressure on the emergency assistance program will be long-term in nature, with the families entering shelter today expected to remain through fiscal year 2025.”
Demand for emergency assistance shelter is primarily driven by a surge in newly arrived migrant families, high cost and limited availability of housing, and reduced exists of families in long-term emergency shelters stays, Augustus wrote.
The situation has become so dire, the Healey administration has argued, that not only is funding drying up, but the emergency shelter system is projected to run into the red by roughly $210 million by the end of fiscal year 2024.
“This projected deficiency does not include additional resources needed for wraparound services, school supports, and community supports,” Augustus wrote.
Lawmakers and Healey allocated $325 million for the system in the fiscal 2024 state budget, which was expected to support 4,100 families and 4,700 housing units.
There were 7,389 families in the system as of Tuesday, with 3,671 in hotels and motels, 3,641 in traditional shelters, and 77 in temporary sites like Joint Base Cape Cod and a Quincy college dorm building.
“It is no longer possible to secure additional space that is suitable and safe for use as shelter beyond a capacity of 7,500 families,” Augustus wrote. “The commonwealth does not have enough space, service providers, or funds to safely expand shelter capacity any longer.”
Administration officials previously projected that 1,000 families could enter the emergency shelter system each month.
