Gavin Newsom wants to run for president in 2024, that much is clear. The California governor would not be campaigning for President Joe Biden in red states with 16 months until the presidential election if he wasn’t trying to prove his own political bona fides and build a future base of national support for himself.
Recently, Newsom traveled to Idaho, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than four to one, and is reportedly planning to visit other politically similar states, like Montana and Utah. The ostensible purpose of these trips is to tout Biden’s accomplishments and shore up enthusiasm for the Democratic Party, but Newsom’s underlying goal is undoubtedly self-promotion.
Newsom’s feud with Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is further evidence of this. Back when DeSantis was considered the frontrunner for his party’s presidential nomination, Newsom smeared him in public speeches and attack ads over his far-right policies on abortion and transgender rights.
The governor’s intentions are easily discernible, despite his claims to the contrary. Newsom has insisted that he has no interest in seeking the presidency, but we shouldn’t assign much weight to these claims. Actions speak louder than words, and Newsom’s actions strongly suggest that he is trying to put himself on the radar of Democratic donors and elites if, for whatever reason, Biden does not seek a second term.
Further, as then-Senator Barack Obama demonstrated in 2008, a Shermanesque statement is not carved into stone. A politician who reneges on a past denial of having presidential ambitions can essentially say, “that was then, and this is now.” The “now” for Newsom would be if Biden drops out of the race.
The main challenge for Newsom is that, if Biden were to step aside because of his age, health, or standing in the polls, it would likely be late in the process, perhaps December of this year or even January of next year, one month before primary voting would begin. Why? Because Biden would want to wait as long as possible before becoming a lame duck president.
If that were the case, it would be particularly difficult – but not impossible – for Newsom to enter the primary contest against the likely nominee and would-be frontrunner, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Democratic elites and donors are skittish over the prospect of Harris at the top of the ticket, and with good reason. Her average approval rating is even lower than Biden’s, as approximately 39% of voters approve of Harris, compared to 41% for Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of recent polls. She also has the lowest net favorability rating of any vice president in recent history, per recent NBC News polling.
Newsom well-understands the dilemma Democrats find themselves in. The incumbent president is vulnerable and his natural successor is a vice president with no discernable accomplishments from her time in office. With Trump likely to clinch the Republican nomination – unless his legal challenges preclude him from running – Democratic voters will be eager for an ‘electable’ nominee who is established nationally and has the infrastructure to mount a last-minute campaign. Enter Newsom.
Still, it would be a logistical nightmare – although not impossible – for Newsom to enter the race if Biden bows out around the holidays or thereafter. Almost certainly, Newsom would sidestep the first contest in South Carolina; the state was responsible for setting Biden on a path to the nomination in 2020, and by dint of the African American vote, Harris would be the assumed frontrunner. Rather, Newsom would hit the ground running on Super Tuesday, and would seek to run big and wide to overwhelm the current vice president.
Still, Newsom could struggle to break through in a national primary race against a Black female vice president, as the Democratic Party has become increasingly tethered to identity politics. That being said, with the threat of Trump returning to the White House, and if Newsom’s red state cross-country tour achieves its veiled goal, he may be able to win the backing of enough Democratic donors, elites, and electability-focused primary voters to overtake Harris.
How Newsom would fare in a general election – against Trump, or whomever the GOP nominee may be – is also an open question.
On one hand, Newsom is young, charismatic, a political force, and the governor of a large state who handily survived a recall election. He has also swung to the center to reject the far-left’s agenda in his state, including the reparations task force proposal, which would have cost taxpayers billions of dollars when the state is already on the precipice of budget deficit, per the CalMatters Organization.
That being said, California is still far to the left of the country, and Newsom’s tenure has been mixed. He has presided over a surge in homelessness and an affordability crisis, and 4-in-10 Californians have reportedly considered leaving the state, per recent PPIC polling.
Of course, this analysis is riddled with ‘ifs’ – Biden not running for reelection, Newsom being able to mount a primary campaign in short order, and so on. The only part that is certain is that, by dint of his recent actions and statements, Gavin Newsom wants to run for president in 2024.
Douglas Schoen is a political consultant.
