Aaron Rodgers is officially a member of the Jets. The Bills are still the Bills. And the Dolphins have the Patriots number.
Needless to say, the Patriots, now considered the cellar-dwellers in the AFC East, need help.
The NFL draft is one place to find it.
How chief decision-maker Bill Belichick and personnel head Matt Groh ultimately handle the first round and beyond will go a long way toward rising up from the basement.
Focusing on the first round, the Patriots have choices to make, sitting just outside the top 10.
Basically, there’s three scenarios that could play out Thursday night.
Stand pat at No. 14 with the hope a stud will still be there when they’re on the clock. Move up to assure getting the sure-fire blue chip prospect they most desire. Or move down the board, trading with another team to collect an additional pick closer to the sweet spot in the draft.
The most likely scenario for the Patriots?
That’s easy. Trade down. When it comes to the first round, Belichick has rarely met an add-more-picks scenario he doesn’t like. With only a small number of so-called blue chip, can’t-miss players in this draft, moving down to secure two good prospects is going to be hard to resist.
Me?
While the Patriots needs are many, and trading down makes a ton of sense in terms of plugging holes, I’d rather stay put and snag an A-list player.
With four quarterbacks likely to go before pick No. 14, that pretty much gives the Pats a top 10 pick.
So conceivably, they could land a blue chipper at corner, offensive tackle, or receiver, the three positions that stand as their top needs.
For me, if Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon is still available at No. 14, I’m not moving back. I’m charging to the table with the pick. And if he’s within a few picks, still viable at No. 8 or 9, I’m moving up if at all possible.
The Patriots need blue chip players. They need game-changers to try and close the talent gap just in the AFC East alone. They need to be aggressive to make that happen. They have good players on the current roster. They need to supplement those with top-end talent, as opposed to adding more of the same.
Witherspoon is a potential shutdown corner. Chances are, he’ll be gone by the seventh pick but the point shouldn’t be lost.
If there’s a desired blue chip talent in sight, or if he drops in the Patriots’ lap, grab him.
Trading down will get the Patriots another player in either the second or third round to go along with a later pick in the first, but it probably won’t net them the kind of star they need.
If Witherspoon is gone, and either Christian Gonzalez or Joey Porter Jr., are still around at 14, jump in. They have the desired size and are among the best corners in a deep class.
Based on most mocks, Porter will still be available to the Patriots in their current spot.
Speaking with Patriots Hall of Famer Ty Law last week, he doubled-down on the importance of having that one shutdown corner in the defensive backfield.
“A shutdown corner is invaluable because you know you have one guy who can hold his own, or take out a No. 1 guy,” said Law. “Those guys are a hot commodity. So if you don’t take him, someone else will.”
Just playing the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle), Bengals (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins) or Chargers (Keenan, Mike Williams), the Pats need to have one corner who can handle one of the two, while doubling the other. So many teams now have at least two receiving threats. It behooves the Pats to find a top gun to eliminate one of those threats.
The current stable of Jones boys – Jonathan, Jack and Marcus – is pretty good. But none of them would currently be considered a shutdown player. Maybe Jack Jones is headed toward that status in the Pats’ view, but there has to be some reluctance given he finished the year suspended by the team.
That said, Law would endorse Porter if he’s in their sights.
“I played against Porter’s dad, and his dad was a hell of a player,” said Law. “He was a real tough guy. Knowing that bloodline, (Porter Jr) is going to be aggressive and play like his dad. If he has the type of athleticism to play corner, and type of mentality like his dad had playing linebacker, you gotta look at him. The fact he played a lot of man-corner, with his size (6-2, 200 pounds), that’s No. 1 corner type stuff right there.”
Of course, there is clamoring for a big-time receiver. The problem is unlike previous drafts that have been loaded with star receivers, this one doesn’t seem to boast the same level of can’t-miss, game-changing talent. There’s no Chase waiting to hear his name called.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba would certainly be enticing if he’s still available at No. 14. And if he’s not there, BC’s Zay Flowers is another possibility.
I’d pull the trigger on Smith-Njigba if the top three corners are gone and he’s still up for grabs. It’s a bit early on Flowers at 14. I’d also consider running back Bijan Robinson if he’s sitting there when the Patriots are on the clock.
That might be considered insanity to some, but the Patriots need dynamic playmakers. They need players who scare defenses. Robinson scares defenses, and there aren’t many in this year’s draft who fit the profile. Along with a top-notch quarterback, having elite playmakers on offense is where it’s at in today’s NFL.
It’s just tough to justify taking a running back in the first round, no matter how good. If you have an established winning team, without many needs, such as the Chiefs or Eagles, Robinson makes more sense.
Then, there are the offensive tackles. If the Patriots deem tackle the most important need, it behooves them to land Paris Johnson Jr., even if it means moving up the board. He’s arguably the best pure tackle in the class. The Ohio State big man profiles as a difference-maker on the line.
If they prefer Georgia’s Broderick Jones, or Tennessee’s Darnell Wright, go for it.
The point being, the Pats shouldn’t be so quick to trade down. Landing at least one blue-chip talent is a must in my book.
