It’s finally draft day.
After months of scouting and speculation, the first round will begin Thursday night in Kansas City when the Carolina Panthers make the first overall selection. While a clear betting favorite has emerged to go No. 1, there’s no consensus on the 30 picks that will follow before the night is over. That makes for an interesting draft.
Here are The Baltimore Sun’s projections for the first round, including three mock trades (Note: The Miami Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick after a league investigation for tampering):
1. Carolina Panthers (via Chicago): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
All signs point to Young being the pick for Carolina, which is betting he can overcome his 5-foot-10, 204-pound frame and become a franchise cornerstone. Young’s size is an outlier among first-round quarterbacks, but he showed an incredible feel for eluding pressure and hitting open targets that’s drawn comparisons to Cincinnati Bengals star Joe Burrow.
2. Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
By far the strangest draft rumor to emerge over the past few weeks is Houston being willing to pass on a quarterback with the No. 2 pick. If it does, the 6-5, 271-pound Wilson has the length, speed and power to develop into a star and help new coach DeMeco Ryans build a defense that could one day rival his units in San Francisco.
3. Tennessee Titans* (projected trade via Arizona): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill is the subject of trade rumors, and the Titans have reportedly lost faith in 2022 third-round pick Malik Willis. Desperate to be competitive again, coach Mike Vrabel and first-year general manager Ran Carthon — a former Gators running back — make a big move up the board for the 6-4, 244-pound Richardson, the most athletic quarterback in NFL scouting combine history who has shown flashes of being a high-level passer.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
How about this for a stunner? Even with Ohio State star C.J. Stroud falling into their laps, the Colts take Levis, who struggled mightily this past season with injuries while playing behind a poor offensive line. The 6-3, 229-pound Penn State transfer has a big arm and experience running an NFL offense, which might push him slightly ahead of Stroud for general manager Chris Ballard and first-year coach Shane Steichen.
5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Seattle didn’t hide its interest in this quarterback class, posting pictures of the team’s brass meeting with top prospects. Although they re-signed veteran Geno Smith after his breakout season, the Seahawks pounce at the chance to mold the 6-3, 214-pound Stroud. He could end up being the best quarterback in this class after a year of seasoning.
6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams): Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
The mad scramble for quarterbacks helps the Lions tremendously. The 6-3, 253-pound Anderson is widely considered one of the top prospects in this class after an incredibly productive career (62 tackles for loss, 34 1/2 sacks) for the Crimson Tide. He would form a dynamic duo with last year’s No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson.
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
With Jimmy Garoppolo under a sizable contract and the top quarterbacks off the board, the Raiders look to fortify one of the league’s worst defenses. While the 5-11, 184-pound Witherspoon is a bit undersized, he plays with a ferocity Las Vegas has been lacking on defense outside of star pass rusher Maxx Crosby.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Falcons’ recent release of veteran cornerback Casey Heyward Jr. perhaps signaled their intentions with this pick. The 6-1, 197-pound Gonzalez is a smooth technician who would help form a talented young secondary next to star A.J. Terrell and recent trade acquisition Jeff Okudah.
9. Chicago Bears (via Carolina): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Carter’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said he had no concerns that his client would fall out of the top 10 despite off-the-field issues, including pleading no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing. Carter was in consideration to go No. 1 overall before the Bears traded the pick because of his dominance for the two-time defending national champions.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans): Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
The Eagles love to build through the trenches. That could mean drafting an offensive lineman to replace left guard Isaac Seumalo or step in at right tackle after Lane Johnson’s eventual retirement, but Smith might be too tempting to pass up. Although he’s undersized at 6-2 and 238 pounds, Smith is an explosive athlete who is only scratching the surface as a pass rusher.
11. Arizona Cardinals* (projected trade via Tennessee): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
With quarterback Kyler Murray likely to miss at least the start of the 2023 season and the roster in complete disarray, the Cardinals should be trying to add as many picks as possible. The 6-6, 313-pound Johnson could step in immediately at guard before eventually taking over at right tackle opposite D.J. Humphries.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers* (projected trade via Houston from Cleveland): Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Steelers aren’t afraid to trade up for a player they really like. After a standout combine performance, the 6-foot, 197-pound Banks’ size, speed and physicality will be coveted by teams that need secondary help. Count Pittsburgh among that group after losing Cameron Sutton to the Lions and signing veteran Patrick Peterson to a one-year deal.
13. Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
How fitting would it be if the Packers use the pick they acquired in the Aaron Rodgers trade to finally draft a first-round wide receiver? The 6-foot, 196-pound Smith-Njigba would be a great complement to second-year wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, giving young quarterback Jordan Love the weapons he needs to succeed.
14. New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern
Cornerback remains a big need, but left tackle Trent Brown only has a year remaining on his contract and 34-year-old right tackle Riley Reiff’s spot on the roster isn’t guaranteed in 2024. Skoronski’s NFL future might be at guard because of his short arms, but his 33 starts at left tackle against Big Ten competition suggest he can stick on the outside.
15. New York Jets (via Green Bay): Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Jets can’t rely on oft-injured Mekhi Becton and 2022 fourth-round pick Max Mitchell at tackle to protect the 39-year-old Rodgers. The 6-5, 333-pound Wright might have the most potential of any offensive lineman in this class because of his strength and tenacity.
16. Washington Commanders: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The addition of right tackle Andrew Wylie and guard Nick Gates helps solidify the offensive line, but that unit is far from a finished product. The 6-5, 311-pound Jones has the tools to be a standout left tackle and could take over that spot from veteran Charles Leno as soon as next season.
17. Houston Texans* (projected trade via Pittsburgh): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Yes, Houston is doubling up at edge rusher in the first round. That’s how big of a need it is. The 6-5, 272-pound Van Ness can line up both inside and outside, giving the Texans an infusion of energy, toughness and power with the athletic traits to grow into a dominant force.
18. Detroit Lions: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
How much fun would this Detroit draft be? Although undersized at 6-1 and 281 pounds with short arms, Kancey flashes some of the best pass-rushing potential of any player in this class. The Lions need a disruptive three-technique to take their defense to the next level.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Take it for what it’s worth, but Robinson has only had top-30 visits with the Eagles and Buccaneers. With quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask expected to battle for the starting job, Tampa Bay could use a reliable running back to carry the load on offense. That’s the 5-11, 215-pound Robinson, a broken-tackle machine who has excellent receiving skills out of the backfield or in the slot.
20. Seattle Seahawks: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Seahawks could use some juice off the edge to pair with emerging talent Uchenna Nwosu. The 6-4, 268-pound Murphy has experience lining up all over the defensive front and the length, athleticism and down-to-down effort to become a standout player.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are still terrific wide receivers, but they struggle to stay on the field. The Chargers’ lack of a deep threat hurt them last season, and there are few reliable targets on the depth chart for quarterback Justin Herbert. Enter the 5-9, 182-pound Flowers, a big-play threat with the speed to take the top off the defense.
22. New York Giants* (projected trade via Ravens): Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Giants see Porter falling and jump ahead of the cornerback-needy Vikings and Jaguars to get the son of the former Steelers star. They find a willing partner in the Ravens, who need a corner themselves but choose to replenish their uncharacteristically small pool of picks. The 6-2, 193-pound Porter would be a great fit in defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale’s blitzing schemes that ask its corners to hold up in man coverage.
23. Philadelphia Eagles* (projected trade via Minnesota): Brian Branch, S/CB, Alabama
Like the Ravens, the Vikings enter with just five picks and have a general manager in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah who likes to trade down, even with a division rival. The Eagles, on the other hand, have a roster with few glaring needs and a general manager in Howie Roseman who likes to trade up for prospects he covets. The 6-foot, 190-pound Branch would be a perfect fit in the same role Chauncey Gardner-Johnson played last season for the NFC champions.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
After the Eagles swoop in and take the player widely mocked to Jacksonville, the Jaguars pivot to addressing their hole at left guard. The 6-5, 330-pound Torrence is a powerful blocker who can become a cornerstone piece of an offensive line that has struggled to find interior help.
25. Ravens* (projected trade via New York Giants): Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Moving down creates an intriguing scenario for the Ravens. Do they fill their biggest hole at cornerback, add a wide receiver or just take the best player on their board? A defensive lineman such as Michigan’s Mazi Smith or Clemson’s Bryan Bresee, an offensive lineman such as Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence or Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison or even an edge rusher such as Iowa State’s Will McDonald IV or Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah would make sense, but can they really say no to a corner as productive as Forbes? In three seasons, he recorded 14 interceptions and returned a Football Bowl Subdivision six for touchdowns. He weighed only 166 pounds at the combine, but you can’t teach his instincts.
26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones might start thinking about former tight end Jason Witten and turn the card in himself. The 6-4, 249-pound Mayer is a complete prospect who could soak up the 282 targets Dalton Schultz earned from quarterback Dak Prescott over the past three seasons before leaving for the Texans in free agency.
27. Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR, Southern California
The Bills have needs at linebacker, safety and along the offensive and defensive lines, but those positions aren’t as valuable when it comes to first-round picks. The 5-11, 173-pound Addison would be a great fit in the slot next to Stefon Diggs, giving quarterback Josh Allen another weapon to try and get over the hump in the AFC.
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Given the depth of the tight end class, the Bengals won’t feel pressured to pick one in the first round, especially if Mayer if off the board. With Jonah Williams requesting a trade and La’el Collins recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, right tackle is an important areas to address. The 6-4, 315-pound Harrison is a smooth pass protector with three seasons of starting experience, giving Cincinnati peace of mind in front of quarterback Joe Burrow.
29. New Orleans Saints (via San Francisco): Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
Cameron Jordan is the only proven edge rusher on the Saints’ roster, and he’ll turn 34 this season. The 6-3, 239-pound McDonald makes up for his lack of size with incredible athleticism, using his burst and length to tie the Big 12 record with 34 sacks and force 10 fumbles in his college career.
30. Houston Texans* (projected trade via Minnesota from Philadelphia): Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Wanting to come away from the first round with a quarterback, the Texans jump a few spots from No. 33 to secure their choice. The 6-3, 217-pound Hooker is 25 years old, coming off a torn ACL and played in a gimmicky offense that has no parallel in the NFL, but he’s put himself in the first-round conversation thanks to his physical tools and steady improvement.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
While wide receiver, edge rusher and defensive tackle are among the Chiefs’ biggest needs, there is more depth at those spots to address later in the draft. Kansas City could use some competition for 2020 third-round pick Lucas Niang at right tackle, and the 6-8, 378-pound Jones has rare size and length to step in be a dominant force from Day 1.
NFL draft
Round 1: Thursday, 8 p.m.
Rounds 2-3: Friday, 7 p.m.
Rounds 4-7: Saturday, noon
TV: ESPN, NFL Network, Chs. 2, 7
()
