Bill Belichick pacing another sideline in another team’s colors, sneering and snorting at another team’s press conferences after 24 years in New England.

Then again, so was a 2-6 start to this season.

And a sub.-500 record for Belichick over a three-and-a half-year span.

And a Belichick-coached team ever sitting last in the AFC, having committed the second-most penalties in the league with the NFL’s third-worst turnover margin.

Yet, here we are.

The Patriots are a bad football team. Their roster is starved for blue-chip talent and a quarterback of the future. Belichick hand-picked every person in his locker room, front office and coaching ranks. He is responsible for everything.

If the Pats continue charging toward a 4-13 or 5-12 finish, it only reasons the door could swing open for Belichick to leave this January. Few NFL coaches or GMs survive a four-year run with a 45% winning percentage, let alone when that person is one and the same. Robert Kraft cleaning house has crossed the minds of multiple folks working in football operations with more than half a season left.

Whether Kraft turns the knob, Belichick kicks the door down himself or they agree to a mutual parting of ways, it’s believed Belichick will not go gentle into that good night of retirement. Reports have long indicated Belichick is committed to, perhaps even hellbent on, breaking Don Shula’s record for most coaching wins all-time. He’s 17 wins away from leaping Shula.

Perhaps more to the point, Belichick is someone raised in a film room who’s spent 49 of his 71 years on Earth coaching NFL football. Life, as Belichick knows it, needs football as much as water or oxygen.

The question is: could Belichick leave for the Patriots’ next opponent?

The Commanders should offer a cozy landing spot, even if only for the two years Belichick may need to seize his record. Washington is under a new ownership group led by 76ers co-owner and managing partner Josh Harris. That group is flashing all the usual signs of new owner behavior.

First, they make a public effort to ingratiate themselves with fans. Next comes spending unholy gobs of money. Washington is scheduled to have the fourth-most cap space in the league this spring, after off-loading top pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Bill Belichick dodges on Patriots’ inactivity at NFL trade deadline

Once the offseason hits, it's another safe bet Harris and Co. will advance to step three: hiring their own people. Ron Rivera is seven games below .500 in his three-plus years as Washington's head coach. Third-year general manager Martin Mayhew doesn't have a standout draft class on his resume.

Belichick could fill both jobs with one signature and instantly restore the Commanders to relevancy. No other coach or GM can offer that. Belichick would represent the ultimate big splash, and new owners love nothing, nothing more than stealing headlines and soaking the competition. (See: the new-look Broncos signing Sean Payton.)

What about Belichick's contract?

Since the NFL Network reported that Belichick signed a new deal this spring, insiders from ESPN to Sports Illustrated have thrown water on the idea that it represents an ironclad commitment between coach and team.  NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran reported the only known detail about the contract, saying it runs through 2024. If true, Belichick's future in that sense is no more guaranteed than any other losing head coach's, given NFL teams rarely, if ever, allow coaches to enter a contract year.

Bill O’Brien offers blunt assessment of disappointing Patriots offense

Even if Belichick's deal becomes an obstacle, financially or otherwise, the Patriots could always trade him. Washington just added two valuable draft picks at the deadline. An ownership group that dropped more than $6 billion to buy the team won't let money stand in the way.

As a Maryland native, Belichick would also return home. He could rehire old pal Josh McDaniels to run his offense and bring sons Steve and Brian to fill out his defensive staff. Belichick is well aware of Washington's storied history, having coached against the then Redskins for more than a decade when he was a Giants assistant in the 1980s.

Asked about that history Wednesday, Belichick spent a curious amount of his time discussing ownership.

"George Preston Marshall bought the team, moved it to Washington, had it a long time. Sold it to (Jack Kent) Cooke. Cooke won three Super Bowls with (Joe) Gibbs. (Daniel) Snyder bought it, and they’ve rebranded in the last couple years. It’s one of the older franchises in the league, I don’t know," he said.

Of course, the Commanders are among several teams that could entertain coaching changes this offseason, including one that's already pulled the trigger. They are: the Jets, Raiders, Browns, Chargers, Buccaneers and Bears.

Belichick isn't packing up for New York or Cleveland again. He's not following Brady's shadow in Tampa or Brady to Las Vegas, where his former top lieutenant got canned after 25 games. The Chargers' ownership is famously cheap and dysfunctional. Chicago could appeal, though the Bears' are only in Year 2 with their new head coach and GM.

That leaves only the Commanders. Stretch your imagination. Picture it again.

Can't you see it?

Wide receiver DeVante Parker (concussion) and left tackle Trent Brown (ankle/knee) were held out with new injuries. The Pats also hit the field without backup tight end Pharaoh Brown and offensive tackle Calvin Anderson. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley was severely limited with a hurt hamstring.

Defensive back Myles Bryant also has a new chest injury.

In Washington, the Commanders rested defensive lineman Jonathan Allen and sidelined wide receiver Curtis Samuel due to his toe injury.

Both teams’ complete injury reports are below.

PATRIOTS

Did not participate

WR DeVante Parker, Concussion

OT Trent Brown, Ankle/Knee

TE Pharaoh Brown,

OL Calvin Anderson, Illness

Limited participation

LB Ja’Whaun Bentley, Hamstring

DL Christian Barmore, Knee

LB Josh Uche, Ankle/Toe

DL Deatrich Wise Jr., Shoulder

CB Jonathan Jones, Knee

DB Myles Bryant, Chest

OL Vederian Lowe, Ankle

COMMANDERS

Did not participate

DT Jonathan Allen, Vet Rest

CB Kendall Fuller, Vet Rest

WR Curtis Samuel, Toe

C Ricky Stromberg, Knee

Limited participation

S Percy Butler, Calf

TE Logan Thomas, Heel

Brown played through ankle and knee injuries in last Sunday’s loss at Miami, where Parker took a blow to the head and did not return. Brown also missed the start of practice last week, but returned the following day and hasn’t missed a game this season.

Offensive tackle Calvin Anderson and tight end Pharaoh Brown were also absent Wednesday. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley jogged lightly on the field, but did not engage in any individual drills. He left in the second quarter of Sunday’s loss with a hamstring injury.

The Patriots will release their first injury report of the week Wednesday evening.

McDaniels and Ziegler left the Patriots for Las Vegas in Jan. 2022 and lasted just a season and a half together. The last time McDaniels was fired as a head coach in 2010, he spent one season working outside of New England, then returned for a second stint starting in the 2011 playoffs. He was later promoted back to his old post as offensive coordinator, where he remained for the next 10 years.

So could McDaniels return for a third stint?

Bill Belichick deflected when asked about McDaniels’ firing during his Wednesday morning press conference.

“Yeah, just heard about it this morning,” Belichick said. “Again, just trying to get ready for Washington.”

As for a possible reunion, Belichick reiterated: “Just getting ready for Washington.”

Under new coordinator and quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien, the Patriots offense ranks second-worst in the league at 14.8 points per game. Last season, Belichick replaced McDaniels with the combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Patricia left after his only year as a play-caller, having overseen the worst Patriots offense of the Belichick era, while Judge was reassigned from quarterbacks coach to assistant head coach with an emphasis on special teams.

The Patriots will kick off against the Commanders at 1 p.m. Sunday from Gillette Stadium.

On Wednesday, Bill Belichick took his first questions about the team’s inactivity at the deadline. Belichick deflected the first two questions, saying his focus was on preparing for Sunday’s game against Washington. On Tuesday, the Commanders (3-4) were among the most active teams at the deadline, trading defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat for picks in the second and third round of next year’s draft.

Pressed about any trade talks the Patriots (2-6) might have had Tuesday, Belichick repeatedly declined to offer specifics and called it “just another day.”

Below is a complete transcript of Belichick’s comments Wednesday related to the trade deadline:

Q: The trade deadline was yesterday. Was it a busy day for you guys?

Belichick: “Yeah, we’re getting ready for Washington.”

Q: Were you close on anything?

Belichick: “Spent time getting ready for Washington.”

Q: When you say you spent time getting ready for Washington yesterday, is that just there wasn’t much sort of percolated on the trade front for you guys?

Belichick: “Yeah, again, we talked about this the other day. The personnel department, the coaching department, we talked about that last week. It’s just another day.”

Q: So there really weren’t any decisions to make on your end?

Belichick: “If there was anything to talk about, we talked about it. If there wasn’t anything to talk about, then I worked on Washington, and the personnel people worked on personnel things.”

Q: “Bill, I’m really not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I just want to clarify you mentioned the personnel department handles the trade stuff and trade discussions maybe with other teams, but you are part of the personnel department here, why –“

Belichick: “Phil (Perry), I just said the same thing. We talked about this 50 times. If they have something that they think I need to know about, then we talk about it. If I have a personnel situation that I think they need to know about, I tell them about it, and then they look into it. It’s the same thing I’ve said the last 50 times we’ve talked about this. We work together when there’s something to work together on. If there’s not something to work together on, I coach, they do personnel.”

Q: “I was just trying to clarify just because you make it sound like two different things. Our understanding is you’re part of –“

Belichick: “Yes, if there’s something that we need to talk about, then we talk about it. And if there isn’t something to talk about, we don’t just sit there and stare at each other all day. We both have other stuff to do. Their department, the coaching apartment, there’s other things going on. So we don’t just sit there and stare at each other and see if the phone’s going to ring or there’s going to be something on the news or whatever. We have stuff to do.”

The man in that charge of that offense has no illusions about the state of his unit.

“Yeah, it hasn’t been what we want it to be. It’s been very inconsistent,” Pats offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien said Tuesday. “There’s been glimpses of, ‘Hey, this, this is good. This is what it can be, this is the rhythm that we need to get into, these are plays that are well-executed, well coached, well designed.’ And then these are other things that aren’t as good.

“So it’s very, very inconsistent.”

The Patriots appeared to make some progress during their loss at Las Vegas in Week 6, then their upset of the Bills in Week 7. But they scored just 17 points last Sunday at Miami, thanks to one touchdown drive on a short field and another against a prevent defense in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins had a 14-point lead.

The Pats have struggled in every area for long stretches of the season. Through eight games, they rank 24th in passing by DVOA and 19th in rushing. According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots are a below-average offense in passing, pass-blocking, run-blocking and receiving.

Tying that all together is an offensive line that’s used 10 different combinations to start possessions this season, the result of several injuries and poor depth.

The Patriots did not make any trades before the NFL’s trade deadline Tuesday at 4 p.m., locking them into their current roster for the remainder of the season.

At 2-6, the Patriots reportedly received several calls from other front offices and were expected to entertain selling. Their playoff hopes are virtually shot. Many key starters, including Matt Judon, Kendrick Bourne and Christian Gonzalez, are expected to miss most of, if not all of, the rest of the season.

The Pats took calls on veteran players in contract years, including pass rusher Josh Uche. The 25-year-old has missed the team’s last two games with an ankle injury, and has not reached terms with the team on an extension. Despite tallying just two sacks this season, Uche ranks among the most effective per-snap pass rushers in the NFL.

Two other edge rushers, Washington’s Montez Sweat and Chase Young, were dealt Tuesday for 2024 draft picks in the second and third round, respectively. It’s unknown what market the Patriots had for Uche.

“Josh is a great player,” Pats safeties coach Brian Belichick said Tuesday. “(He) obviously puts a lot of pressure on the offensive line with his quickness, explosiveness, strength and power, you know, whatever it is. But he gets off the ball very quickly. And I would say puts pressure on the offensive line when you’re lined up across from him. So it’s always good when he’s out there.”

According to Sports Illustrated, the Patriots also took calls on safety Kyle Dugger and offensive lineman Mike Onwenu. Like Uche, Dugger and Onwenu are 2020 draft picks amid contract years. Pats quarterback Mac Jones and running back Ezekiel Elliott reportedly did not generate any trade interest.

Looking ahead, the Patriots are currently scheduled to hold the third-most cap space in 2024. In addition to the aforementioned players in contract years, Bourne, starting left tackle Trent Brown, tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki and defensive back Jalen Mills are scheduled to hit free agency.

Mike McDaniel’s offense out-flanked and out-gunned Bill Belichick’s defense. The Dolphins dictated terms to the Pats offense at the line of scrimmage. All of this took place Sunday, but Miami laid the foundation for its sixth win in the last seven series meetings during the last few offseasons.

Over the last three years, the Dolphins successfully stockpiled talent in a way the Patriots have failed to for years. That talent gap manifested in a flexibility and crucial margin for error Sunday.

Despite missing four starting offensive linemen for most of the game, the Dolphins passed at will; short, intermediate or long, to the left, right or over the middle. Whatever they wanted. Tua Tagovailoa flipped a bad first-half interception, just like Mac Jones, yet knew he could still comfortably control the game in a double-digit win.

Why?

Because Tagovailoa knew his defense, stocked with Pro Bowlers and former first-round picks, would buy him time. Not that his offense needs it. The Dolphins scored the very next drive after Tagovailoa’s pick, when he launched a 42-yard bomb to Tyreek Hill, and eventually out-gained the Pats by almost a 2:1 ratio.

But for the Patriots offense, life is hard. Everything takes time and demands precision. Their talent leaves them no optionality, no margin for error.

The entire passing game consists of short to intermediate throws. They generate no explosive runs. They have no Plan B.

Against them, Miami’s defense had the luxury of shutting off one side of the field by parking new All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey on Jones’ left basically all day. By game’s end, Jones had completed as many passes in that direction to Ramsey as he did his teammates. His interception led directly to a 10-point deficit, a death knell for the Patriots.

Defensively, the Pats’ talent disadvantage left them at Miami’s mercy. Hill and Jaylen Waddle pull coverage toward them pre-and post-snap, motioning at the highest rates in the league. Defending the Dolphins means changing on the move, on their time and at their speed.

So, the Patriots majored in basic zone coverage. They hardly blitzed. They played basic, static defenses on early downs; the same formula most Miami opponents have followed.

And yet the stress of keeping up with the Dolphins’ speed ultimately broke them in the final minutes, when Waddle coasted to a 31-yard touchdown with no defender in sight. The score clinched Miami’s fourth win of 14 points or more this season alone. The talent-starved Patriots have four of those, too — in the last year and a half.

Leveling this division series, which has become as lopsided as most any in the AFC the last few years, will require matching Miami’s talent in the coming offseasons. That, of course, will take time.

For now, the Pats can address these problems as they play out a lost year without wondering why they lost again on Sunday:

Mac Jones

19-of-29 for 161 yards, 2 TDs, INT

Accurate throw percentage: 70.4%

Under pressure: 2-of-8 for 26 yards, 3 sacks

Against the blitz: 1-of-2, 2 yards

Behind the line: 6-of-6 for 20 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 10-of-13 for 77 yards, TD

10-19 yards downfield: 3-of-8 for 64 yards, TD, INT

20+ yards downfield: N/A

Notes: Blah.

Jones did little to power a winning effort Sunday, hitting just one tight-window throw and declining to rip a single deep pass for a second straight game. As always, he proved sharp underneath, which sustained the Patriots the week before against the Bills (when he was also appreciably more accurate). There were three major differences between those outings: Jones had more time (posting a 2.2 second snap-to-throw average versus Buffalo and 2.51 at Miami), more injured receivers and a big, bad interception before halftime.

Jones grossly overestimated his arm talent in that moment, skying a 19-yard, cross-field throw a half-beat too late against future Hall of Fame cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The interception represented at least a 6-point swing, possibly 10.

Jones even had a chance to atone at the start of the third quarter, when Miami gifted the Patriots a fumble on first play from scrimmage. But standing at the Dolphins’ 14, Jones took a third-down sack after staring down Rhamondre Stevenson in the flat, while Demario Douglas found open space across the back of the end zone for a possible touchdown.

It’s a tough balance. Jones knows he often has little time behind a porous offensive line, so jumping at checkdowns to Stevenson makes sense. No NFL quarterback is envious of his current situation.

But failing to keep defenses honest downfield for multiple series, and now games, allows opponents to play downhill and squeeze routes underneath. It’s a tightrope walk every week for Jones and this offense. Jones crossed safely last week against the Bills.

He fell off Sunday.

Critical areas

• Turnovers: Patriots 2, Dolphins 2
• Explosive play rate: Patriots 5.9%, Dolphins 6.8%
• Success rate: Patriots 38%, Dolphins 43%
• Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 1-2, Dolphins 2-4
• Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 16.7%, Dolphins 31.2%

Offense

Game plan

• Personnel breakdown: 77% of snaps in 11 personnel, 23% snaps in 12 personnel.***
• Personnel production: 4.3 yards/play in 11 personnel, 5.6 yards/play in 12 personnel.
• First-down down play-calls: 67% pass (4.9 yards per play), 33% run (2.3 yards per play)
• Play-action rate: 25%

Player stats

• Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 3, RB Ezekiel Elliott 2
• Pressure allowed: LT Trent Brown 4 (3 QB hits, hurry), C David Andrews (sack), RG Mike Onwenu (sack), LG Cole Strange (hurry), RG Atonio Mafi (hurry), QB Mac Jones (sack), Team (hurry)
• Run stuffs allowed: TE Hunter Henry, TE Pharaoh Brown
• Penalties: Mafi (ineligible man downfield), WR Kendrick Bourne (holding), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (unsportsmanlike conduct), LS Joe Cardona (false start on punt)
• Drops: None

Notes

• After trying to pound the Dolphins with heavy personnel in Week 2, the Patriots pivoted to a spread game plan that emphasized pre-snap motion.
• Bill O’Brien called for motion on more than 62% of his play-calls, including 35% with a receiver in motion at the snap. This represented huge departures for the Pats, who recently ranked near the bottom of the league in motion usage at the snap two weeks ago, but have since made it a staple of recent game plans.
• The results of O’Brien’s motion-heavy plan were meager —17 points and a 4.3 yards per play average with motion (same as their average on all plays) — but pre-snap activity did spark both touchdowns. More on that later.
• The Patriots’ chief problems in Miami were the same as always: an ill-timed Mac Jones turnover that handed the opponent points, and an inability to overcome minor adversity. The offense scored on one of its seven drives that included a negative play.
• How did that happen? The Dolphins controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing 0.7 rushing yards before contact and creating havoc with a stunts and other defensive line movement on passing downs that reached Jones on roughly one-third of his snaps basically without blitzing.
• Miami targeted left guard Cole Strange on a couple stunts and blitzed linebackers up the middle, while they dropped outside linebackers into coverage.

• Rookie guard Atonio Mafi, who rotated with starting right guard Sidy Sow, again proved to be a weak link. Left tackle Trent Brown also allowed a season-worst four pressures, hampered by ankle and knee injuries. Center David Andrews and right tackle Mike Onwenu each surrendered a sack.
• As they bullied the Pats up front, the Dolphins dominated first down, when they allowed 2.3 yards per carry and forced Jones to go 4-of-7 for 13 yards and an interception in the first half.
• Trailing 17-7 at halftime, the Patriots received a golden red-zone opportunity to score after the Dolphins lost a fumble on their opening play of the half. Instead of marching forward, the offense gained five yards on two RPOs and Jones took a 6-yard sack after holding the ball for 3.5 seconds.
• Down by 14 in the fourth quarter, the Patriots sustained their longest possession by rushing for 38 yards on a defense willing to wind clock, and hitting tight end Hunter Henry on two out-breaking routes that covered 24 yards.
• Henry and Mike Gesicki should have seen far more than six measly targets, considering Miami entered kickoff as a bottom-5 defense against tight ends by DVOA.
• Rhamondre Stevenson continues to look like a lesser version of himself, excluding one powerful second-quarter run where he broke two tackles.
• Finally, the motion. The Patriots scored their first touchdown by sending Demario Douglas left to right across the formation before a third-and-4 snap, which forced his defender, backup corner Justin Bethel, to follow. That told Jones that Miami was in man-to-man coverage.
• Once Douglas aligned outside of Kendrick Bourne, the Dolphins’ defensive rules dictated Bethel switch onto Bourne, now the nearest receiver to him, instead of chasing Douglas all the way across. This created a mismatch for Bourne, the Patriots’ best receiver.

• At the snap, Miami double-teamed Douglas, who drew the nearest safety closer to the line of scrimmage. Once Bourne cut in front of Bethel and ran into open space over the middle, Jones found him for an easy 24-yard catch-and-run touchdown.
• Without Douglas’ pre-snap motion, the Patriots don’t force that switch, and Jones may not have detected man-to-man.
• Later, motion sprung JuJu Smith-Schuster free for his lone highlight of the season, a 3-yard touchdown catch on fourth-and-goal. He whipped into the right flat at the snap and triggered a common pick-route combination.
• This is the essence of the Patriots offense: repeating basic plays that allow Jones to unload the ball quickly and attack space within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. O’Brien’s job week to week is essentially figuring out how he can package these same few dozen concepts in new ways to run them again.
• This is why motion is now so vital. The Patriots can’t create mismatches organically,  and motion is among the tools that helps them dress these concepts up and stresses defenses.
• In Miami, plays involving motion at the snap averaged 4.7 yards per play and a 53% success rate, up from the Patriots’ overall numbers of 4.3 yards rate of 38%. Through two weeks, the Pats have used more motion, created more mismatches and more defensive stress scored more points. Keep it going.

Defense

Game plan

• Personnel breakdown: 50% three-safety nickel package, 39% dime, 10% three-corner nickel, 1% base.****
• Coverage snaps breakdown: 74%% zone, 26% man
• Blitz rate: 16.7%
• Blitz efficacy: 8.9 yards allowed per dropback, 44% success rate allowed

Player stats

• Interceptions: S Kyle Dugger
• Pass deflections: CB J.C. Jackson 2, CB Jack Jones, CB Jonathan Jones, LB Jahlani Tavai
• Pressure: Dugger 2 (sack, hurry), Tavai 2 (2 hurries), DL Christian Barmore (sack), DL Keion White (hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings (hurry)
• Run stuffs: S Jabrill Peppers, LB Mack Wilson, White
• Missed tackles: Peppers, Dugger, Jennings, White,
• Penalties: Jackson (pass interference), CB Jack Jones (neutral zone infraction), DL Davon Godchaux (holding)

Notes

• Stealing from the Eagles’ win over Miami the week before, the Patriots opened in a 3-4 front and lived out of Cover 2 and Cover 3. Their goal was to force Tua Tagovailoa to march patiently downfield, limit vertical routes and rally to short crossing routes.
• Early on, they succeeded, thanks to a Dolphins run game sapped of most of its power due to O-line injuries. Miami suffered a negative play on each of its first two drives (a Jabrill Peppers run-stuff and Christian Barmore sack), thanks to this O-line.
• Kyle Dugger ended Miami’s second drive with an interception on third-and-15. The Patriots showed a two-deep shell pre-snap, then morphed into Cover 3 Buzz, a single-high defense that dropped Peppers and Dugger over the middle at the line to gain, while fellow safety Jalen Mills covered the deep middle.

• Tagovailoa carelessly flung that ball for Hill down the right seam, where Dugger was waiting. From their scouting efforts, the Patriots knew Miami loves to target receivers in the space between the numbers and hashes.
• Pivoting, the Dolphins spent most of the next drive attacking the flats with play-action passes and perimeter runs. The Patriots defended most flat throws by having their edge defenders “peel” and run with running backs or receivers in that area so their defensive backs could stay deep.
• At midfield, another play-action pass caused cornerback J.C. Jackson to step up against Hill, who zoomed by him and rookie safety/linebacker Marte Mapu for a touchdown.
• The Patriots had called a version of Cover 4, a defense where both outside cornerbacks and both safeties are responsible for covering a deep fourth of the field. Hill’s speed served as another reminder he’s the most dangerous weapon in the league.
• Miami then stuck with its play-action and flat-focused formula on the next series, even overcoming a second-down Dugger sack. Facing third-and-14 at the Patriots’ 21, coach Mike McDaniel called consecutive screens, successfully predicting an incoming Patriots blitz in the high red zone and then again on fourth-and-1. The Patriots have a high blitz tendency in that area and down-and-distance.
• To cap the drive, Tagovailoa targeted Jackson three straight times inside the 10 and scored on a 1-yard toss to Cedrick Wilson Jr. Miami clearly saw value in targeting Jackson.
• On that touchdown, the Dolphins used the same pre-snap motion that led to a goal-line touchdown pass to Hill in Week 2, but flipped the route from the right side to the left and called for a slant for Wilson Jr. instead of an out. Another McDaniel win over Belichick.

• Little changed for either side over the middle quarters, when the Dolphins added a field goal before the half and another touchdown after marching 77 yards in nine plays. The Patriots did send a double-team at Hill in the red zone and on third down to help Jackson.
• Defensive play-caller Steve Belichick also backed off the blitz and went lighter on the final drive to best protect against the pass. The Pats gambled by deploying dime personnel (six defensive backs), hoping to slow Miami’s passing game and offer enough resistance against the run.
• Instead, the Dolphins accepted the dare to run and averaged almost six yards per carry on its last scoring drive on four hand-offs. Miami also drained 5:37 of the last eight and a half minutes, before Waddle exploited a communication breakdown in coverage on third-and-1 that knocked the Pats out with a 31-yard touchdown.

• Judging how the Patriots handled that motion and concept on Miami’s opening drive, it appears Jack Jones was at least partially at fault when he followed Tyreek Hill completely across the formation instead of switching onto Waddle in the slot.
• On Miami’s opening drive, Myles Bryant followed Hill until he reached the slot, then covered Waddle. The Patriots’ outside corner on that side then, J.C. Jackson, covered Hill, just as Jonathan Jones did during the first possession. This allowed the Pats to maintain leverage against two of the fastest receivers in the league.

• Nice game for second-round rookie defensive lineman Keion White. He was the only defender to record a pressure and a run stuff.

Studs

S Kyle Dugger

An interception, one sack and a hurry. Even if Dugger was at fault on Miami’s knockout touchdown in the fourth quarter, he kept the Patriots within relative reach as much as anyone.

LB Jahlani Tavai

Tavai continues to wear as many hats as any player on Belichick’s defense. He tallied two hurries and a pass breakup.

Duds

CB J.C. Jackson

The Dolphins picked on Jackson like a little brother who went unpunished for a successful prank. With all that attention, he allowed two touchdowns and committed pass interference.

LT Trent Brown

He fought through ankle and knee injuries, which must be factored here. But four allowed is a bad day at the office for any offensive lineman.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends.  

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs.

There is hope Bourne could recover in time for the start of training camp next summer, though not necessarily with the Patriots. He is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency this spring.

The 28-year-old got hurt on a sideline tackle after he caught a pass early in Sunday’s fourth quarter. Bourne is the Patriots’ leading receiver in all major categories, with 37 catches for 406 yards and four touchdowns. He’s also logged 73% of the team’s offensive snaps through eight games, highest among the receivers.

Bourne was enjoying a rebound season after making significant changes to his offseason routine and diet. He had already surpassed his season total for catches last year (35) and was tracking for career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. Patriots coach Bill Belichick praised Bourne’s production and consistently as recently as two weeks ago during a radio interview on WEEI.

“Yeah, KB’s done a good job for us all year, not just yesterday,” Belichick said after the Patriots’ loss at Las Vegas. “Getting open, with the ball in his hands, after the catch. He’s shown some good run skills and the ball security’s been much better this year.”

Bourne is also regarded as one of the most energetic players in the team’s locker room. He is one of several starters the Patriots have lost to injury this season, including Pro Bowl outside linebacker Matt Judon and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Without him, the Pats’ receiver depth is down to DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas, Jalen Reagor, Tyquan Thornton and rookie Kayshon Boutte.

Parker suffered a head injury in Sunday’s game and did not return, while Smith-Schuster returned from a two-game absence to find himself fifth on the depth chart. He has 89 yards total on the season. Douglas, a sixth-round rookie, is now the Pats’ leading healthy receiver with 222 yards.

Reagor has just one catch in four game appearances. Thornton was a healthy scratch Sunday, and Boutte hasn’t taken any snaps since the season opener. They have eight and zero yards, respectively, on the season.

Bourne should soon on injured reserve, which will create an open roster spot.

Whether it pokes at his roster management, in-game management, or a play-call doesn’t matter. Odds are Belichick will follow with some version of this answer: “We did what we thought was best for the football team.”

It’s a verbal binky for Belichick. Through this blanket response, he simultaneously tells the truth without revealing anything and often halts the line of questioning. Inevitably, we all move on.

Well, here’s a question: with the NFL’s trade deadline two days away, what is in the best interest of the 2-6 Patriots?

Selling, of course.

Forget a path to the playoffs. After going 1-of-9 on third down in Miami, these Patriots need directions just to move the chains. There is no sense in adding cargo onto a sinking ship.

It’s time to offload.

The Dolphins out-gained the Patriots by close to a 2:1 ratio Sunday and led for the final 36 minutes; numbers that spotlighted the massive talent gap between the Pats and legitimate AFC contenders. The Patriots are who we thought they were: a bad football team.

Belichick and the front office should deal veterans on expiring contracts who can fetch mid-round picks — like Josh Uche, Kendrick Bourne and/or Kyle Dugger. None of these players will return compensatory picks if they walk as free agents, assuming the Patriots spend this spring like any bad team with the second-most cap space in the NFL should. So, stockpile as much draft capital as possible now fore future selections or trades that require more assets than the front office currently has.

The time to trigger a rebuild is here. But will Belichick see this? Will he sell?

Fat chance.

Belichick is known to sacrifice anything at the altar of winning. He is both the GM and head coach, and while Belichick the GM has often failed Belichick the head coach when roster-building, one won’t abandon the other now. Belichick might also be coaching for his job, especially after Sunday’s defeat dropped him to 27-32 over the last three and a half years.

On Sunday morning, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer shed light on the reporting around Belichick’s offseason contract adjustment saying, “Effectively, my understanding is, this changes nothing.”

Breer’s reporting echoed earlier sentiments shared by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, an insider who has a long-standing, well-documented relationship with Belichick. Schefter expects Belichick and owner Robert Kraft to meet at the end of the season and decide if and how to move forward.

Kraft should first call a meeting on how to move at the trade deadline, and order Belichick to sell. He’s allegedly done it before.

Patriots’ latest loss shows recent offensive surge was just a fluke

According to ESPN, Kraft ordered Jimmy Garoppolo be traded days before the deadline in 2017. Kraft has repeatedly denied the report, calling it "fiction." But the circumstances surrounding and leading up to Garoppolo's trade to San Francisco support the reporting.

Belichick called the 49ers last-minute and asked for a second-round pick, a price lower than what the Browns offered at the 2017 NFL Draft, which Belichick declined. Belichick didn't attempt to drum up a market for a highly valued asset. What type of GM does that?

Belichick, as reports later uncovered, also happened to be butting heads with Tom Brady. But Brady, fresh off his fifth Super Bowl ring and en route to another MVP award, won Kraft over, thereby forcing Garoppolo out and winning the right to leave on his own terms.

If Belichick intends to win Kraft over in the coming days, what case could he possibly make?

It's not a roster currently devoid of blue-chip talent. It's not a coaching edge his staff is instilling on Sundays (the Patriots committed four more penalties than Miami). It's not the quarterback.

Mac Jones' interception at the end of Sunday's first half came a Demario Douglas tackle away from becoming his fourth pick-six of the season. It caused at least a 6-point swing in what was then a 14-7 game the Patriots might have tied were it not for Jones' horrendous throw.

Bill Belichick comments on JuJu Smith-Schuster’s demotion in Patriots-Dolphins game

Through eight games, Jones is tracking for career worsts in passer rating, yards per attempt and interception rate. Of course, he's also been failed by one of the NFL's most porous offensive lines.

The Patriots' latest solution there has involved moving right guard Mike Onwenu to right tackle; a move offensive line coach Adrian Klemm told reporters he considered as early as this summer, and Belichick has been reluctant to make for years.

Out wide, Belichick's latest highly drafted wide receiver, Tyquan Thornton, was a healthy scratch Sunday. His big free-agent splash this offseason, JuJu Smith-Schuster, only took the field because DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne succumbed to injuries. Meanwhile, Jalen Reagor, newly signed off the practice squad, saw several snaps before Smith-Schuster took his first.

Lastly, Belichick's pride and joy, his defense, failed to beat Miami back at the end. It continues to suffer from communication issues in the secondary, as safeties Jabrill Peppers and defensive back Myles Bryant confessed post-game. Though Dugger snatched his first interception of the season, and might be turning a corner.

Could that boost his value in the eyes of interested contenders? Bourne's value is already clear, provided his MRI scheduled for Monday comes back clean. The same holds for Uche, one of the most impactful per-snap pass-rushers in the NFL, per multiple advanced metrics.

But in New England, Uche can't even see the field half the time. He hasn't played more than 38% of the team's snaps in a single season. He's a poor scheme fit, a sad excuse for an organization that drafted and developed a player with a premium skill set coveted around the league.

There cannot be any more excuses at 2-6. Whether Belichick decides on his own or Kraft forces him, it's time. Hang the sign on the door.

Fire sale.

He grabs a helmet, shoulder pads, cleats, the same faded jersey, and a couple other pieces of equipment common to every NFL player.

But last week, in order to properly prepare for Buffalo, he needed more.

Reagor requested four sweatbands from the team’s equipment staff, two for each forearm. He slid one under each elbow, then tugged the leftovers above each wrist. Because in those practices, he would no longer be Jalen Reagor.

He was the second-most targeted receiver in the league, a three-time Pro Bowler and armband enthusiast: Bills star Stefon Diggs. The coaching staff tasked Reagor with simulating Diggs on the scout-team offense, his home for most of the season as a practice-squad player (the Patriots signed Reagor to their active roster Thursday). Each week, the Patriots’ scout-team offense practices against their starting defense, running plays the coaches expect to see from their next opponent.

Prior to last weekend, Diggs had made a habit of torturing the Patriots. He averaged seven catches for 95 yards and a touchdown in their last six regular-season games. Theoretically, the closer Reagor could act, look and play like Diggs, the better the Patriots could defend him on game day.

And that’s exactly what they did, holding Diggs to season lows in catches (six) and receiving yards (58).

As for Reagor’s practice performance, teammates universally glowed days later. He crushed it.

“He’s helped us tremendously,” said Patriots cornerback/safety Myles Bryant. “I mean, you look at the receivers we’ve gone against so far this season, I don’t think there’s been a week where we can kind of relax. And every week he’s gone out there and gotten us better.”

The proof is in the numbers.

The Patriots defense ranks best in the league against opposing No. 1 receivers by DVOA. They’ve allowed 44.5 yards per game to that group, which includes the AFC’s leading receiver (Miami’s Tyreek Hill), the NFC leader (A.J. Brown), future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, and rising stars CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Combined, these No. 1 receivers have 20 Pro Bowl honors, but just four touchdowns versus the Patriots this year.

Since signing to the team’s practice squad in August, Reagor has helped simulate most of those receivers. To the 24-year-old, no detail is insignificant to his preparation; not Diggs’ arm bands and mouthpiece nor Adams’ mannerisms at the line of scrimmage.

On Adams, Reagor said: “He never runs his routes full-speed. If you notice, he runs the release at in-between (speed), then goes full. So, you just study that and then implement that into your game.”

Reagor admitted he’d study players like Diggs and Adams anyway. He devours wide receiver highlights at home, in the facility, anywhere he can. A first-round pick from the 2020 draft class, many believed Reagor would one day join the ranks of the league’s elite.

Instead, the the 24-year-old got traded after two disappointing seasons in Philadelphia, and failed to make a significant impact last year with the Vikings, who cut him this summer. He’s enjoyed a rapid rise in New England, thanks partly to an underperforming group around him. Only one Patriots wideout owns more than 200 yards this season.

There’s a case Reagor may be the most naturally gifted receiver in their meeting room.

“When you talk about talent, (Reagor) can do everything,” said Pats safety Jalen Mills. “He can run short routes, he can run intermediate routes, he can run the deep ball because he’s fast. He’s got a strong enough build to go across the middle.”

“You see it out there on the practice field,” said Patriots safety Adrian Phillips. “He is legit.”

As a prospect, the 5-foot-11 Reagor clocked a 4.4 in the 40-yard dash and tested as one of the most explosive players in his entire draft class. He ranks among the Patriots’ strongest receivers, something he should soon be able to showcase on Sundays with the starting offense. Though Reagor said he intends to continue contributing on scout team.

Patriots’ Kendrick Bourne opens up about last season’s struggles

"Scout team is fun for me," he said. "I can also work on my craft, but those types of receivers have a lot of freedom in the offenses. So being on scout team is just having fun."

Ahead of Sunday's showdown at Miami, Reagor declined to divulge much about simulating Hill. There was one unavoidable fact, however: extra running.

As one of the NFL's fastest players, Hill ranks among the league's leaders in pre-snap motion and deep routes.

"Before and during the play, you do everything he does. It's a bunch of stuff, it's crazy," Reagor said. "And I can see why they throw him the ball a lot."

A deep threat himself, Reagor said the last two months in New England have helped round out his game. In college at TCU, he ran the same handful of routes playing within a simple scheme that prioritized tempo and deep passing. But now, he's comfortable tracing every branch of the NFL route tree.

Reagor also believes he's grown personally, having endured all the pain and criticism that accompanies failing to meet first-round expectations in a market like Philadelphia. He's left social media behind, and divorced his self-worth from the opinions of strangers. He's found purpose in practice, and the reps that elevated him and a defense dominating the best in the game.

"It might be a blessing in disguise. Maybe I needed to be in a place like this, where hard work is the sole purpose. Who knows?" Reagor said. "I'm just optimistic because at the end of the day, it can't get worse."

Pats' trade candidates facing finale?

Is this goodbye?

Whether the Patriots win or lose in Miami, several key players will face the possibility they've played their final game in New England.

The Pats will be a sub-.500 team when the NFL's trade deadline arrives Tuesday at 4 p.m.. The front office has received several calls about their impending free agents, a source told the Herald's Doug Kyed. One front-office source expects at least one trade to be "definitely possible."

Among the Patriots' top trade candidates are wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, pass rusher Josh Uche, safety Kyle Dugger and offensive lineman Mike Onwenu. All of them are on expiring contracts. Veteran tight end Hunter Henry and starting left tackle Trent Brown have also been rumored to  be potential trade targets, though their standings on the depth chart and in the locker room should keep them in Foxboro.

This week, Uche, who is currently dealing with a foot injury, addressed the possibility of an extension and trade with the Patriots.

"My agent's been in communication with the team. I've had some communications. I'm not gonna really disclose with whom or what it was about," he told the Herald. "So I just know I want to play football, I would love to be in New England, and at the end of the day it comes down to me doing everything I can.

"And that starts with playing football, so that's where my priority is right now."

Meanwhile, Dugger insisted he knew little about any trade rumors.

What’s the likelihood Patriots make a deal at next week’s NFL trade deadline?

"Honestly I haven't heard too much about that," he said. "I just keep trying to focus on the field."

As for communication with his agents, Dugger added: "If something happens, obviously I have to know about it, but (my agents) just let me focus on playing football, trying to get better and be better."

Onwenu is taking a similar mindset ahead of the deadline. His value could rise around the league if he continues to play at right tackle, a position that pays higher than right guard.

"No, I haven't thought about it," he said of a possible trade. "I mean, whatever happens, happens. I can't control it."

Last week, Bourne admitted the trade deadline will weigh on his mind. This is the second straight season the Patriots have taken calls from outside front offices about his availability.

“Definitely will be on my mind, but just being ready for whatever man,” Bourne said. “I want to be here, I would love to be here. But if there are other plans, then it is what it is.”

Dugger disappointed in his play

Through seven games, one of the Patriots' five best players is playing anything like it.

Safety Kyle Dugger has more pressures as a pass rusher than pass breakups in coverage. He's yet to force a turnover. He's whiffing on more than 10% of his tackle attempts and tracking for one of the worst Pro Football Focus grades of his career.

"Personally, I don't feel like I've played even close to my best ball," he said. "So I'm just trying to build and get into that. Fundamentally, things like that, just get myself playing better ball ... get the simple things back in alignment."

What does Dugger believe he's lacking?

"Just missed opportunities when I watch the film," he said. "It might not be something that's super obvious to anybody outside, but just things that I know personally, you know, I should have done better you know, go offense, things I didn't take advantage of whatever reason."

Dugger said playing more free safety in Devin McCourty's absence hasn't contributed to his struggles. The Patriots suffered from communication issues in their secondary during a recent three-game losing streak against Dallas, New Orleans and Las Vegas.

"No, I'm not gonna let that — that's something that I think the defense needs somebody needs to do, and I feel like I have to do that," he said. "I don't think that's an excuses. I just have to be better fundamentally."

Quote of the Week

"I’m not a big space guy." — Patriots center David Andrews explaining why he's never seen Star Wars.

Last weekend’s upset of the Bills won’t be enough for the Patriots (2-5) to reverse course on their season, but beating Miami could start an impressive U-turn. The Pats are slated as 9-point underdogs in South Florida, where they’ve struggled historically. The Patriots are 2-8 in their last 10 visits, and haven’t beaten the Dolphins on the road in the post-Brady era.

Expect them to follow a formula similar to what they executed against Buffalo: quick passing, more run-pass-options, defensive schemes to get instant pressure and an eye on the field position battle.

Here’s how Sunday should go down in Miami:

When the Patriots run

Suddenly, the Pats are among the steadiest rushing teams in the NFL.

They rank ninth in success rate over the last three weeks, indicating an ability to stay on-schedule and move the chains. Moving right guard Mike Onwenu to right tackle factored into some of their success, though something must be said for overall continuity.

The Patriots are no longer juggling injuries along their O-line, which has cleared wider and wider holes for running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Left tackle Trent Brown is also playing some of the best football of his career. Despite that, look for the Pats to pound the right side of Miami’s defense, where the Dolphins are allowing a league-high 31.3% of carries in that direction to go for first downs, per Sports Info. Solutions.

Mac Jones discloses ‘word of the week’ for Patriots after big win over Bills

The Patriots are also likely to dust off their plan from the teams' last meeting in Week 2, when they featured heavy personnel groupings on their first few drives. While they failed to knock Miami off the ball that night, and then fell into an early hole, the Dolphins are allowing 4.4 yards per carry against two-tight end personnel, ninth-worst in the NFL.

When the Patriots pass

Despite all their talent, Miami ranks among the worst passing defenses in the NFL by most metrics. Good news, right?

Not entirely. According to the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DOVA, the Dolphins are a top-5 unit at defending the middle of the field, aka Mac Jones' sweet spot. Jones played his best game of the season last week by attacking between the numbers and inside of 20 yards downfield. He didn't attempt a single deep pass.

After going 0-of-5 on those throws versus Miami last month, expect the Patriots to target Stevenson and tight ends Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki and Pharaoh Brown in the short to intermediate areas. Miami ranks as a bottom-5 pass defense versus running backs and tight ends. The Dolphins also hinted at a possible return for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey during the week, which could discourage outside throws.

And don't forget about rookie receiver Demario Douglas. He averaged more than 14 yards per touch last weekend, the first game of his career when he was allowed to play more than half the team's offensive snaps. Douglas is coming on strong.

Callahan: The Patriots can’t take Demario Douglas off the field anymore

When the Dolphins run

Lost amid all the hype for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is the fact Miami fields one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in the entire league. That is, until last week.

Against Philadelphia, the Dolphins finished with 45 rushing yards and a yards per carry average below four. The Eagles' defensive line dominated a banged-up Miami offensive line, which will again be without its starting left tackle and starting left guard on Sunday. The Pats will need defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux to dominate like they did against Buffalo and control the middle, where Raheem Mostert ripped off a 43-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter of the last meeting.

The danger, as always, is in the Dolphins' long speed.

But the real battleground Sunday might be on the edge, where Miami repeatedly ran outside zone and toss plays to get their speedy backs in space in Week 2. Aside from Jahlani Tavai losing one battle that allowed for an 8-yard touchdown in the second quarter, the Patriots largely held their ground. That bought them time against Miami, which called 45% of its runs behind either tackle, and scored once in the second half.

When the Dolphins pass

This is all about timing.

In Week 2, Tagovailoa nullified the Pats' pass rush (a season-low 15.2% pressure rate with Matt Judon) by unloading the ball in a faster average time (2.08 seconds) than any quarterback posted that week. Miami still operates one of the league's fastest passing games designed to get Hill and Waddle into space. Even with a limited receiving corps (Hill has a hip injury), the Dolphins' offense is designed to create yards after the catch for whoever is playing receiver.

To prevent this, will the Patriots blitz? They sent extra rushers at Josh Allen on almost 40% of his dropbacks last Sunday, despite the fact he entered with a passer rating against the blitz north of 110. Tagovailoa's numbers are also strong versus the blitz, and in Week 2 he went 4-of-6 for 43 yards against Patriots blitzes, including three first-down conversions.

One way or another, the Patriots must either reach Tagovailoa within two-plus seconds or force him to hold the ball for longer than he wants.

Game pick

Miami 20, Patriots 16

The Pats listed eight players as questionable, including left tackle Trent Brown (ankle/knee), pass rusher Josh Uche and defensive lineman Keion White (concussion). Uche and White both missed last weekend’s win over the Bills.

In Miami, the Dolphins removed wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle from their injury report.

Both teams’ complete reports are below.

PATRIOTS

Out

OL Calvin Anderson, Illness

Questionable

DL Christian Barmore, Knee

OT Trent Brown, Ankle/Knee

LB Josh Uche, Ankle/Toe

DL Deatrich Wise Jr., Shoulder

DL Keion White, Concussion

CB Jonathan Jones, Knee

OL Vederian Lowe, Ankle

CB Shaun Wade, Shoulder

DOLPHINS

Questionable

CB Cam Smith, Foot

RB Raheem Mostert, Ankle

S Jevon Holland, Concussion

RB Alec Ingold, Foot

WR River Cracraft, Shoulder

CB Xavien Howard, Groin

CB Nik Needham, Achilles

CB Jalen Ramsey, Knee

C Connor Williams, Groin

“(I’ll) just start by sending our – from the team, players have talked about this, captains yesterday, too – sending our thoughts and prayers to the people in Maine. It’s obviously a tragic situation,” Belichick said. “They’re great fans of ours, great friends up there and Maine is a great place. I feel bad for the pain and situation that they’re going through.

Bill Belichick opens with a statement sending thoughts and prayers to the people in Maine after the mass shooting. He mentions the #Patriots fans up there, and his personal connections to the area.

“We’re thinking about you down here with the #Patriots.” pic.twitter.com/Hh7ZH0V7qU

— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) October 27, 2023

“You know, Lewiston and Bowden, (I have) a lot of connections and a lot of my friends went there. I know the area pretty well, it’s very sad and difficult. So, we’re thinking about you down here at the Patriots.”

A murder warrant is currently out for the arrest of Robert Card, a 40-year-old resident of Bowdoin, Maine. Law enforcement opened a massive search for Card on Wednesday evening that continued into Friday. The shooting marked the worst mass killing in Maine state history.

Asked how conversations about the shooting began inside the team facility, whether Belichick initiated them or players did, Belichick declined to offer specifics.

“I don’t know, both. It could be any community. We all know that,” he said. “The fact that it’s our fans, our area, i’s kind of like the Connecticut situation a few years back. Not the same, but it’s just sad, tragic. And sounds like it’s not over yet.”

SEE HERALD’S FULL COVERAGE OF MAINE MASSACRE…

The Patriots are currently preparing for a road game Sunday at Miami. Their next home kickoff is scheduled for Sunday, Nov. 5, against Washington.

In New England, the Pats’ top news hit a little differently.

That headline read: “Patriots sign Jalen Reagor from practice squad to active roster.”

Womp, womp.

No two stories could offer a clearer or stronger contrast between the state of these rival offenses. The Patriots are 2-5 because they’ve bogged down by a porous offensive line and one of the league’s least threatening receiving corps. Meanwhile the Dolphins, even after getting thumped last Sunday in Philadelphia, are cruising at 5-2 with the NFL’s most explosive weaponry.

In Miami, Hill is the system, and the system is Hill. He leads the NFL in receiving with 906 yards and covers hundreds more in pre-snap motion that stretches defenses. If he retired tomorrow, Hill could safely begin to draft his speech for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2029 induction ceremony.

Reagor, meanwhile, is seen as a first-round bust. After two months in New England, he drew praise from Bill Belichick mid-week for the yards he’s covered on scout team. Reagor’s promotion came after the Patriots exhausted his three allowable elevations from the practice squad to the game-day roster.

In three game appearances, he has two catches. The Pats are officially on Plan Z at receiver.

Yet the more interesting piece of Reagor’s promotion is not the player, but the numbers crunch. The Patriots now roster seven wide receivers, including six who don’t play special teams. None of the seven were listed on Thursday’s injury report, making it unlikely any land on injured reserve in the coming days.

Considering the Pats typically activate five receivers on game days, two should be destined to become healthy scratches for the foreseeable future.

That’s a lot of dead weight to carry, especially in light of more information that’s emerged in recent days: JuJu Smith-Schuster rated as the worst receiver in the NFL per ESPN analytics; DeVante Parker has one catch in each of the last two games; Tyquan Thornton has two catches on the season.

Rookie wideout Kayshon Boutte, who famously tapped one of his feet, but not both, at the end of the season opener, is already a professional healthy scratch. He’s missed the Patriots’ last six games. Reagor’s addition seems to have made Boutte redundant, considering both play the same ‘X’ position, where players are asked to win in isolation on the weak side of offensive formations.

How long can the Patriots carry on like this? It’s like stocking your shelves with bad food (Smith-Schuster and Parker), cans you can’t open (Thornton) or ingredients you already have (Reagor and/or Boutte). Couldn’t the Pats use one or two of these spots on positions thinned out by injury, like defensive tackle or outside linebacker?

Another move must be coming.

Did the Pats pad their depth knowing they would deal Kendrick Bourne by Tuesday’s trade deadline?

Patriots’ first-round pick being helped by ‘mirror check’ and practice reps

Bourne is their No. 1 receiver by targets, catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Trading him now would mean selling high. Bourne admitted last week the possibility of getting dealt is weighing on him.

“Definitely will be on my mind, but just being ready for whatever man,” Bourne said. “I want to be here, I love to be here, but if there are other plans then it is what it is.”

NFL executives have told the Herald he should fetch a fifth or sixth-round pick on the open market. If the Patriots lose Sunday, there's no reason not to announce themselves as sellers at the deadline. It's time for a rebuild, and Bourne is among their top assets, alongside safety Kyle Dugger, pass rusher Josh Uche and offensive lineman Mike Onwenu.

Might the Patriots find a way to part with Smith-Schuster?

No team is trading for him. Releasing Smith-Schuster outright would cost them millions in cap space, room they don't presently have. Not to mention, the ever cheap Pats aren't ones to flush cash down the drain, even if Smith-Schuster's nagging knee injury has already made him and his three-year, $25.5 million contract a sunk cost.

The Patriots' most likely out comes next summer via trade. That also goes for Parker, who's soured faster than a cup of milk left out in the Miami heat. Even then, they may find no suitors.

The only certainty seems to be another receiver transaction will come first.

It has to, right? Right?

Right?!

Montgomery and Anderson were both non-participants at practice. Montgomery was out for non-injury related reasons, while Anderson is dealing with an illness.

In Miami, the Dolphins upgraded wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who told reporters he is going to play Sunday. Running back Raheem Mostert (ankle), safety Jevin Holland (concussion) and fullback Alec Ingold (foot) were also upgraded to limited participation after sitting out Wednesday.

Both teams’ complete practice reports are below.

PATRIOTS

Did not participate

OL Calvin Anderson, Illness

RB/WR Ty Montgomery, Not injury-relayed, Personal

Limited participation

DL Christian Barmore, Knee

OT Trent Brown, Ankle/Knee

DL Davon Godchaux, Ankle

TE Hunter Henry, Ankle

LB Josh Uche, Ankle/Toe

DL Deatrich Wise Jr., Shoulder

DL Keion White, Concussion

CB Jonathan Jones, Knee

RB Ty Montgomery, Knee

G Cole Strange, Knee

OL Vederian Lowe, Ankle

CB Shaun Wade, Shoulder

DOLPHINS

Did not participate

CB Cam Smith, Foot

Limited participation

WR Tyreek Hill, Hip

RB Raheem Mostert, Ankle

S Jevon Holland, Concussion

RB Alec Ingold, Foot

WR River Cracraft, Shoulder

CB Xavien Howard, Groin

CB Kader Kohou, Neck

CB Nik Needham, Achilles

CB Jalen Ramsey, Knee

WR Jaylen Waddle, Back

C Connor Williams, Groin

Full participation

LB David Long Jr., Knee / Gameday Concussion Protocol Evaluation

The rookie defensive lineman missed four straight practices and last weekend’s upset of the Bills due to injury. White was the only player missing at Wednesday’s practice.

While White returned, the Patriots were down two new players Thursday: running back/wide receiver Ty Montgomery and offensive tackle Calvin Anderson. The reasons for their absences are unknown.

The Pats also fielded rookie quarterback/wide receiver Malik Cunningham, who recently re-signed to the practice squad after getting cut Tuesday.

The Patriots will release their next injury report Thursday evening.

Reagor fills the open roster spot created when the team released quarterback Malik Cunningham on Tuesday. The Pats have since re-signed Cunningham to their practice squad.

Reagor, 24, originally signed to the Patriots’ practice in late August. He has been elevated for three regular-season games this season, the maximum allowed by league rules. Reagor caught an 11-yard pass last weekend versus Buffalo, his first of the season. He now becomes the seventh receiver on the roster, joining JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte.

The former first-round pick entered the league in the 2020 NFL Draft with the Eagles. Known for his rare speed, Reagor disappointed over his first two seasons with Philadelphia, where he caught 64 passes for 695 yards and four touchdowns. The Eagles traded him to Minnesota last year, and he caught just eight passes with the Vikings.

Reagor was among Minnesota’s final roster cuts this summer. Pats coach Bill Belichick said of him Wednesday: “Jalen’s come in, been a really good scout team player for us. We’ve played against a lot of top receivers, and he’s gotten a lot of a good opportunities with some of the routes that those guys run to kind of be featured a little bit on some of the scout team plays. He’s earned some playing time, which has come from his practice time, practice performance. He’s picking up the offense, and we’ll see how it goes.

“He’s got good talent, good guy to work with, glad we have him.”

The 5-foot-8 firecracker exploding out of the slot.

The best pure receiver Bill Belichick has drafted in 10, 15 … maybe 20 years?

Yes, Demario Douglas is that good, and the Patriots just might be winless without him.

Let’s review.

In Week 3, Douglas secured a long third-down catch the play before the Pats scored their only touchdown in a tight win over the Jets. Against Buffalo last weekend, the Patriots let Douglas play more than half of their offensive snaps for the first time all season. From those snaps, he squeezed 74 yards and half-dozen first downs that led directly to scores in a 29-25 triumph.

Sitting Douglas for more than half of any future game would be coaching malpractice. He can fumble or flip a couple birds at the crowd. It shouldn’t matter.

The kid has to play.

The Pats average 2.67 more yards per play with Douglas on the field versus when he’s off, the second-highest differential among their offensive regulars. He gets open faster than any other Patriot receiver and leads them in average separation, per Next Gen Stats. Douglas’ 3.2 yards of separation even out-ranks stars like Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson.

Douglas’ per-play production outpaces them, too. According to Pro Football Focus, whenever Douglas runs a route, he’s gaining an average of 2.23 yards; a number that tiny as he is, but ranks top-20 among NFL receivers with a meaningful number of targets this season.

That efficiency out-shines stars like Waddle, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel and Ja’Marr Chase. But like them, the best way to capture how Douglas impacts a game is with one word: danger.

He threatens defenses in a way no other Patriots pass-catcher does. Defenses cannot ignore his quickness or his long speed like they cold-shoulder most of his teammates. The kid carries a certain gravity to him, like an elite basketball shooter.

If Douglas motions pre-snap, even without the ball, defenses are suddenly on alert. And they should be, considering the Bills allowed 10.6 yards per play whenever a Patriots player motioned at the snap Sunday. More often than not, that player was Douglas.

Motion further weaponizes his playmaking ability, a trail of gasoline leading into a giant blaze. It allows him a head start, either into a route or a hand-off or sometimes a blocking assignment, like on Rhamondre Stevenson’s 34-yard catch-and-run that kick-started the Pats’ game-winning drive.

It sounds like Mac Jones would like more of that motion.

“I definitely enjoyed that part of the game,” Jones said Wednesday of Douglas going in motion. “Pop has done a good job. Just focus(ing) on how we can do that to get guys open, create areas in the defense that become open because of that. And you see that around the NFL, a lot of teams use motion. High school football, it’s big now. College football, it’s been big for a while.

“I definitely enjoy watching other teams use it as well and what you can learn from that information.”

On Tuesday, Patriots coaches described the Douglas-centric schemes as being game-specific. It’s a week-to-week decision, they added. Well, let’s make that decision easy for them: the answer is yes every day, and as many times as needed on Sundays.

Because the Patriots can speak about being an amorphous offense that shifts its identity week-to-week all they want. The truth is they don’t have the ingredients to cook different dishes on game day. Their menu is more sub shop than Cheesecake Factory.

Bill O’Brien is packaging the same basic concepts — bubble screens to Douglas, swing passes to Stevenson and in-breaking routes for Bourne and Hunter Henry — in new wrapping paper and bows each week to keep defenses guessing. That is what the offense is, and who the Patriots are. That’s fine, even if the Jets knew it in Week 2.

“They don’t really have a complex offense,” said Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. “It’s pretty simple for the quarterback to get.”

But Douglas brings a certain spice that can unlock a world of new flavors. Back in January, he struck the Patriots at the Shrine Bowl, a showcase for college prospects, where their assistants coached dozens of college players for a full week. Douglas separated instantly from defenders on the field, and pulled away from the other receivers in the classroom.

“He was a good kid, he was interested, and he sat in the meetings, and he learned,” said Pats wide receivers coach Troy Brown. “When he was able to get out there and go, he came out there and went and did pretty good.”

Douglas’ other position coach, Ross Douglas, confessed he was “shocked” that the young speedster was still available when the Patriots drafted him in the sixth round last April.

“Luckily, he fell in our lap,” Ross Douglas said, “and he’s a New England Patriot.”

Lucky, indeed.

Left tackle Trent Brown (ankle/knee) was a limited participant after getting hurt toward the end of last Sunday’s win over the Bills. Tight end Hunter Henry and linebacker Josh Uche were also limited. Uche returned to practice after missing all of last week with a knee injury.

Both teams’ complete injury reports are below.

PATRIOTS

Did not participate

DL Keion White, Concussion

Limited participation

OL Calvin Anderson, Illness

DL Christian Barmore, Knee

OT Trent Brown, Ankle/Knee

DL Davon Godchaux, Ankle

TE Hunter Henry, Ankle

CB Jonathan Jones, Knee

RB Ty Montgomery, Knee

G Cole Strange, Knee

LB Josh Uche, Ankle/Toe

CB Shaun Wade, Shoulder

DL Deatrich Wise Jr., Shoulder

DOLPHINS

Did not participate

WR Tyreek Hill, Hip

S Jevon Holland, Concussion

RB Alec Ingold, Foot

OL Robert Jones, Not Injury Related – Personal

RB Raheem Mostert, Ankle

Limited participation

WR River Cracraft, Shoulder

CB Xavien Howard, Groin

CB Kader Kohou, Neck

CB Nik Needham, Achilles

CB Jalen Ramsey, Knee

CB Cam Smith, Foot

WR Jaylen Waddle, Back

C Connor Williams, Groin

Full participation

LB David Long Jr., Knee / Gameday Concussion Protocol Evaluation

Uche (knee) had appeared in every game before sitting out last weekend. He has two sacks, six tackles and three QB hits on the season.

Rookie defensive lineman Keion White was the only player missing at Wednesday’s practice. White continues to recover from a concussion he suffered 11 days ago at Las Vegas.

After starting at right tackle versus the Bills, offensive lineman Mike Onwenu again worked with the tackles at the start of Wednesday’s practice. Another offensive lineman, Vederian Lowe, appeared limited. Lowe replaced starting left tackle Trent Brown for one series against Buffalo after Brown suffered an apparent knee injury. Brown later returned to finish the game.

The Patriots will release their first injury report of the week Wednesday evening.

The team now has an open spot on its 53-man roster. The Pats signed Cunningham to their active roster ahead of their Week 6 loss at Las Vegas, where he was the only available backup to Mac Jones. In his only game action, Cunningham took three snaps at quarterback and three at receiver against the Raiders. He did not accrue any statistics.

Cunningham was a healthy scratch for last Sunday’s win over the Bills.If he goes unclaimed on waivers, The undrafted rookie could re-sign to the team’s practice squad, where he started the season, as soon as Wednesday.

The Pats released Flowers near the end of his 21-day window to be activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list. Had the Patriots declined to activate him this week, Flowers would have been out for the season. The 30-year-old practiced with the team for the last three weeks after missing all of training camp due to injury, but remained sidelined while the Pats rostered just three edge defenders against Buffalo last weekend.

Flowers has appeared in four games over the last two seasons. He recorded four tackles and one QB hit for Miami last year.

“It’s unfortunate,” cornerbacks coach Mike Pellegrino said, as transcribed by NESN.com. “We’d love to have him this year, but (it’s a) different plan, different path for him this year. He’ll grow from it. The experience isn’t a good one, but he’s a mentally tough guy. He’ll push through it, he’ll come back stronger.”

Patriots wide receivers/returners coach Troy Brown also said Jones will miss the rest of the year. The 25-year-old hurt his shoulder against the Dolphins in Week 2, reportedly suffering a torn labrum.

As a rookie last season, Jones earned All-Pro honors as a punt returner. He saw increasing snaps on defense late in the year, but made his mark on special teams. Jones scored a game-winning touchdown with five seconds left in the Patriots’ 10-3 win over the Jets last November.

Defensively, he tallied 39 tackles, seven pass breakups, two interceptions and a fumble recovery. The Pats also used him as a receiver on 18 offensive snaps, including a 48-yard touchdown he scored during a home loss against Buffalo. Jones became the first player in the Super Bowl era to score on a reception, interception and return in the same season.

This year, Jones finished with five tackles and a fumble recovery. He also returned three punts, with his longest return covering 21 yards against the Eagles in the season opener.

In his place, the Patriots have used rookie receiver Demario Douglas, who ripped off a 25-yard return last Sunday, and veteran defensive backs Myles Bryant and Jabrill Peppers. Bryant has also helped offset Jones’ absence on defense, where he was expected to play nickelback. At corner, the Pats also lost first-round rookie Christian Gonzalez and played most of their first seven games without Jonathan Jones or Jack Jones.

Let’s skip the cliched “complementary football,” a tidy way of saying it’s generally a good idea to play well on offense, defense and special teams in the same game.

Obviously, a banged-up Patriots defense must continue producing turnovers, as Jabrill Peppers did intercepting Josh Allen on Buffalo’s first play from scrimmage Sunday. Obviously, more special teams performances that include rookie kicker Chad Ryland hitting all of his field goals, Bryce Baringer dropping 100% of his punts inside the opponent’s 20 and the Pats winning the field position battle will help.

But the Patriots’ real formula involves alchemy: transforming the anchor that dragged them down for six weeks into wind behind their sails for the rest of the season. That anchor, of course, was the offense.

Mac Jones played arguably the best game of his career Sunday, considering the caliber of the opponent, his surrounding talent and performance in high-leverage situations. He finished 25-of-30 for 272 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots scored a season-high 29 points and completed their first fourth-quarter comeback in years.

After the game, Jones credited Bill O’Brien for writing a winning script. That script came in five parts.

Start with a stabilized offensive line.

Starting right guard Mike Onwenu flipped to right tackle and plugged one of the largest holes in any starting lineup across the NFL. Onwenu allowed a single pressure in pass protection and helped the Pats post a 50% success rate when rushing, the second-highest of any offense in Week 7.

Over the last three weeks — including their hideous 34-0 shutout against New Orleans — the Patriots rank ninth in rushing success rate, which takes pressure off of Jones and allows for offensive balance.

Part two: more motion.

According to ESPN, the Patriots’ offense entered Sunday ranked 23rd in the rate of motion used at the snap with a season-long mark of 14%. Against the Bills, the Pats almost doubled that percentage, snapping the ball with a player in motion 24% of the time. That added eye candy stressed a Buffalo defense saddled with inexperienced linebackers and a tackling problem.

The Patriots averaged 10.6 yards per play on these snaps. Of note: the NFL’s two highest-scoring offenses, Miami and San Francisco, rank first and third in rate of motion used, respectively.

Part three: more run-pass-options (RPOs).

The Patriots called five RPOs on their first 11 snaps, averaging 8.2 yards per play. Jones feasted on RPOs at Alabama, where O’Brien last coached and has since implemented some elements of that offense into the Patriots’ playbook. Calling RPOs, which force Jones to almost instantaneously choose between passing or hand the ball off, also mitigated the Pats’ problems in pass protection, where they still rate sixth-worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

Part four: a base quick passing game.

For a second straight week, Mac Jones led the NFL in fastest snap-to-throw time, per PFF. He unloaded the ball in an average of 2.2 seconds, protecting himself from what he and Belichick called the league’s best pass rush. In that time, O’Brien also featured his two best wideouts versus man-to-man coverage: Kendrick Bourne and Demario Douglas.

Douglas saw a career-best 37 offensive snaps, while Bourne earned a team-high seven targets and played more than any other skill-position player. Their ability to separate downfield helped Jones finish 7-of-8 for 77 yards and two touchdowns versus man-to-man coverage, a major weakness for this offense.

Part five: scheming explosive plays.

Considering Douglas, a sixth-round rookie, stands far and away as the Patriots’ most explosive player, generating chunk plays has and will continue to fall on coaching. The Pats derived most of their explosion (defined as passes of 20-plus yards and runs of 12 or more yards) from well-timed play-action passes and concepts that sprung playmakers into open space. Jones hit passes of 16, 25 and 26 yards off play-action. Around those completions, Douglas ran for 20 yards on a jet sweep, Bourne took a shallow cross for 33 yards and Rhamondre Stevenson rumbled 34 on a well disguised swing pass.

Credit O’Brien for packaging and timing these plays in ways that caught Buffalo off-guard, unlike prior opponents.

Bill O'Brien packaged the #Patriots favorite concepts in new ways to keep Buffalo off-balance.

This is a bubble-screen RPO to Pop Douglas disguised by the tight formation. Mike Gesicki takes an Arc release to block downfield, and the Pats out-leverage Buffalo for a 1st down. pic.twitter.com/TGg1TNRPkQ

— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) October 23, 2023

The question now is: how often can the Patriots repeat this formula? Can it become a habit? What about their identity?

It all starts with Jones. He has the power, like any quarterback, to maintain a steady floor. Over the past two weeks, the Patriots offense ranks fourth-best by Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. But over that past three weeks, when factoring the three turnovers Jones committed during the Saints’ shutout, the Patriots fall all the way to 31st.

So what comes next?

If the Patriots can pull another upset at Miami, a lost season might reset its course faster than anyone expected. If not, last Sunday will slip away, a happy memory swallowed by a sea of disappointment and unrealized potential with an all-too-familiar anchor down below.

Here’s what else the film revealed about Sunday’s win:

Mac Jones

25-of-30 for 272 yards, 2 TDs

Accurate throw percentage: 86.2%

Under pressure: 4-of-4 for 36 yards, TD, 4 rush yards, 1 sack

Against the blitz: 8-of-9 for 117 yards, 4 rush yards

Behind the line: 7-of-8 for 55 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 13-of-15 for 129 yards, 2 TDs

10-19 yards downfield: 5-of-6 for 88 yards

20+ yards downfield: N/A

Notes: This is the Jones we expected to see.

A surgeon over the middle of the field — where he went 17-of-20 — with a lightning-quick release and plus accuracy. Yes, Jones benefited from a game plan tailored to him more than any other we’ve seen, but within that, he executed and risked a turnover on a single play.

Jones also delivered in a way we had never seen before, leading the first game-winning touchdown drive of his career. His third-and-8 completion to Hunter Henry with under a minute left allowed the Patriots to chase that touchdown instead of settling for a field goal. Jones routinely stood in against pressure — a bellwether for him this season — and found a way.

This was a quarterback the Patriots can win with, however long this version of Jones sticks around.

Critical areas

• Turnovers: Patriots 1, Bills 2
• Explosive play rate: Patriots 10.9%, Bills 4.5%
• Success rate: Patriots 52%, Bills 52%
• Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 3-3, Bills 2-4
• Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 41.9%, Bills 21.2%

Offense

Game plan

• Personnel breakdown: 64% of snaps in 11 personnel, 36% snaps in 12 personnel.***
• Personnel production: 6.9 yards/play in 11 personnel, 5.9 yards/play in 12 personnel.
• First-down down play-calls: 63% pass (7.6 yards per play), 37% run (3.3 yards per play)
• Play-action rate: 21.2%

Player stats

• Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 3, WR Kendrick Bourne 2, WR Demario Douglas 2, RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Mac Jones
• Pressure allowed: Team 3 (sack, 2 hurries), LT Trent Brown (QB hit), LG Cole Strange (hurry), RG Sidy Sow (hurry), RT Mike Onwenu (hurry)
• Run stuffs allowed: Team 2, Sow, Andrews, Strange
• Penalties: QB Mac Jones (delay of game), OL Vederian Lowe (ineligible man downfield)
• Drops: None

Notes

• Bill O’Brien ruthlessly attacked the Bills’ linebacking corps and poor tackling with his opening script, calling three RPOs, two plays with motion at the snap and a play-action bootleg on the first drive alone.
• Chasing after all that motion and playmakers in space, Buffalo finished with nine missed tackles, including a few that led directly to explosive plays.
• On the ground, the Pats pounded the soft middle of the Bills’ defense, which entered having allowed 5.7 yards per carry inside. The Patriots’ first eight runs all hit between the tackles.
• However, that well dried up fast, and Buffalo finished allowing four yards per carry. O’Brien adjusted by hitting the edges, including one 20-yard jet sweep for Demario Douglas in the third quarter.
• Another plus in O’Brien’s column: how he disguise base concepts — like bubble screen RPOs, slant-flat and swing passes — in new formations and motions to keep Buffalo off-balance.

Bill O'Brien packaged the #Patriots favorite concepts in new ways to keep Buffalo off-balance.

This is a bubble-screen RPO to Pop Douglas disguised by the tight formation. Mike Gesicki takes an Arc release to block downfield, and the Pats out-leverage Buffalo for a 1st down. pic.twitter.com/TGg1TNRPkQ

— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) October 23, 2023

• Douglas accounted for two of the Patriots’ six longest plays of the game and drew three penalty flags on Bills defenders in coverage. He should remain their starting slot receiver moving forward, regardless of how healthy JuJu Smith-Schuster is.
• Douglas is still showing mental mistakes — he ran the wrong route on third-and-2 that killed the Pats’ 2-minute drill before halftime — but the Patriots must stomach those.
• Because Douglas is also showing growth with his game, like using tempo at the start of his 19-yard catch in the fourth quarter that preceded Bourne’s touchdown. He ran at 80% upfield, the burst through his break on an in-breaking route behind a nearby zone defender to maximize separation, and Jones hit him right on the numbers.

• Sunday’s six explosive plays finished as a season high. They had O’Brien’s play-calling, Douglas, Rhamondre Stevenson, Kendrick Bourne and third-string tight end Pharaoh Brown to thank for that.
• Stevenson accounted for the longest play of the game on his 34-yard catch-and-run that started the Pats’ final drive. O’Brien cleverly disguised that basic swing pass — a staple for this offense — by motioning Douglas at the snap, which also helped the receivers out-leverage Buffalo as they blocked for Stevenson in space.
• Bourne’s fourth-quarter fumble put a sour end on an otherwise sparkling day. The Pats desperately need his yards-after-catch ability.
• Brown caught both of his passes off play-action; one in the flat and another down the right seam. The Patriots rotated him with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki throughout the game to disguise their run-pass intentions, considering Gesicki is more of a pass-catcher and Brown is their best run-blocker.
• Gesicki beat Bills slot cornerback Taron Johnson on his game-winning touchdown with the same route Douglas ran against Johnson the play before. The Patriots picked on Johnson like no other defender they’ve faced this season.
• Nice return for starting left guard Cole Strange.
• Moving Mike Onwenu to right tackle was long overdue. It also speaks to an old philosophy among offensive line coaches: play your best five. Prioritize talent over fit, and let rough edges smooth out. It’s about time the Patriots did just that.

Defense

Game plan

• Personnel breakdown: 31% three-safety nickel package, 31% dime package, 30% three-corner nickel, 5% dollar, 3% base.****
  Coverage snaps breakdown: 52% zone, 48% man
• Blitz rate: 39%
• Blitz efficacy: 3.1 yards allowed per dropback, 37.5% success rate allowed, 2 touchdowns

Player stats

• Interceptions: S Jabrill Peppers
• Pass deflections: CB J.C. Jackson, LB Ja’Whaun Bentley
• Pressure: DL Deatrich Wise 5 (4 hurries, QB hit), DL Christian Barmore 4 (sack, 3 hurries), Bentley 3 (3 hurries), DT Davon Godchaux (QB hit), Peppers (QB hit), S Adrian Phillips (QB hit), CB Jack Jones (QB hit), LB Jahlani Tavai (hurry), DB Myles Bryant (hurry), Team (hurry)
• Run stuffs: OLB Anfernee Jennings
• Missed tackles: Bentley 5, S Kyle Dugger 2, Bryant 2, Phillips 2, Jackson
• Penalties: CB Jack Jones (roughing the passer, illegal contact), S Jalen Mills (illegal contact), S Marte Mapu (holding), Barmore (roughing the passer), Wise (neutral zone infraction),  S Brenden Schooler (false start on punt)

Notes

• Jabrill Peppers intercepted Josh Allen by reading a play-action pass Buffalo hurt the Patriots with several times last season. It features a three-route concept that stretches the short, intermediate and deep level of the field along the sideline.
• Peppers told the Herald post-game he diagnosed the play by studying wide receiver Gabriel Davis’ pre-snap motion, alignment and relaxed body language. Davis appeared to motioning in to block, but Peppers knew better and immediately moved to cover the short route in the flat once the ball was snapped.
• Once Allen looked deeper, Peppers dropped back and intercepted his sideline pass. The interception not only allowed the Patriots to grow their initial lead from 3-0 to 10-0, it built a margin for error they haven’t enjoyed virtually all season.
• The Patriots needed that margin for error in the fourth quarter, when Allen and Co. marched to back-to-back touchdowns having finally overcome the Pats’ high-pressure game plan.
• Armed with a diminished pass rush, defensive play-caller Steve Belichick sent regular blitzes at Allen, particularly on second-and-long and in the high red zone.
• Before Allen’s 8-yard touchdown pass to running back James Cook and ensuing 25-yarder to Stefon Diggs, it worked. Allen started 1-of-6 for 10 yards and a sack against the blitz.
• The blitzing gamble seemed to solve two problems: the aforementioned limited pass rush and Allen’s escapability. Allen killed the Patriots in their previous four matchups by extending most of his dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds, then either scrambling or rifling completions downfield.
• On third down, the Patriots spun the dial: 3-man rushes, double-teams of Stefon Diggs, simulated pressures and more blitzes. Their initial plan relied heavily on a spy for Allen.

• Up front, defensive linemen Deatrich Wise and Christian Barmore also synchronized their best games of the season. They combined for nine total pressures, as Barmore devastated the interior of several pockets for Allen who was forced to duck outside.
• Down to three edge defenders, Anfernee Jennings played a career-high 97% of the defensive snaps. He tallied the team’s only run stuff, and made another run stop by himself after a 1-yard gain.
• Backup inside linebacker Mack Wilson helped offset some of that depth by flexing onto the edge in passing situations.
• The Pats played a higher dose of man-to-man coverage than expected, perhaps emboldened by the return of cornerback Jack Jones from injured reserve. He rotated with Jonathan Jones, while J.C. Jackson played the most snaps (64) of any cornerback for a second straight week.
• The Bills repeatedly hurt the Patriots with in-breaking routes at the second level, where Allen hit Diggs and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (8 catches, 75 yards).
• The tackling was brutal across the board. Ja’Whaun Bentley, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillps and Myles Bryant were the worst offenders, but wrapping up and taking better angles must be addressed with the entire defense this week in practice.

Studs

WR Demario Douglas

Four catches. Three flags drawn. One weapon the Patriots must feature as much as possible.

Feed. Pop. Douglas.

DL Deatrich Wise

His five pressures lead the team and ruined multiple pass plays for the Bills. Without Matt Judon and Josh Uche, the Pats needed Wise to provide edge pressure. He delivered.

DL Christian Barmore

A wrecking ball in a No. 90 jersey. Barmore recorded some of the cleanest wins of any Patriots pass rusher this season. The last two weeks may be the best back-to-back games of his career.

Duds

LB Ja’Whaun Bentley

Rough game. Bentley missed five tackles, blew a couple chances at a sack and was in the vicinity of multiple catches.

WR DeVante Parker

Parker lost significant playing time to practice-squad receiver Jalen Reagor (35 snaps to 25). With his 35 snaps, he failed to separate consistently and finished with one catch.

Statistics for passing depth, broken tackles and missed tackles courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 10-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards. Explosive play rate is one of the most strongly correlated metrics with wins and losses.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end; 22 = two halfbacks, two tight ends.  

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel defense = five defensive backs; dime defense = six defensive backs; goal-line defense = three defensive backs; dollar defense = seven defensive backs.

The indoor ceremony was joyous and populated by ex-teammates, coaches and fans all happy to see him and ride shotgun on a two-hour drive down memory lane.

Piece of cake.

But during his halftime speech Sunday, standing atop a makeshift stage over the Gillette Stadium field, Vrabel addressed an unsettled crowd of thousands; a mix of fans disappointed and displeased at the Patriots’ 1-5 start after decades of dominance.

So during his two minutes at the mic, Vrabel did not bask in past glory. He recognized the moment, and his audience for what they were and decided to stump for his old team.

“I want to thank the fans that made playing in this stadium unbelievably special. … I also don’t want you to take this organization for granted,” Vrabel said. “Enjoy it. It’s not like this everywhere.”

Essentially, Vrabel called on fans to believe as they did during the early dynasty years; a magical time when their faith was rewarded seemingly every Sunday through hard-nosed defense, clutch offense and an uncanny ability to win on the margins, be it field position or a fine detail they had unearthed from film study. It was a hard ask.

To that point, the Pats hadn’t completed a fourth-quarter comeback in years. Bill Belichick’s defense made a habit of getting pushed around to start most every game. The Patriots operated like one of the worst-coached teams in the league, careless at times and clueless in others.

But all of that — even if just for an afternoon — ended Sunday.

Patriots solve years-long problem in upset of Bills

Mac Jones' game-winning touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left punctuated a throwback 29-25 win and a fitting tribute to Vrabel's glory days. Film study allowed Belichick's defense to jump Josh Allen for an interception on the Bills' first play from scrimmage. Later, Jones directed a 2-minute drill and secured the second fourth-quarter comeback of his career.

"It was just old-school Patriots football," said Pats safety Jabrill Peppers. "You know if Tom (Brady) got the ball late in the game, we're gonna win the game.And Mac did a great job."

Only eight players on the Patriots' active roster experienced the tail end of the dynasty and can speak to the magic of those days. One of them is cornerback Jonathan Jones, now the elder statesman of Belichick's secondary who originally made the team as an undrafted rookie in 2016.

Sunday's finish, he admitted, felt familiar.

"It was like old times," Jones said in the locker room, flashing a smile. "I think it started from the beginning just how the game went. Offense gets the ball, comes out and drives the field, special teams backed 'em up, defense gets a turnover. It felt like how we play football, and it feels good to get back to that."

That beginning included a 3-0 lead after Jones orchestrated a 63-yard opening drive that resulted in a field goal. Then Josh Allen took the field, and stepped into a trap Peppers sprung with his first interception of the season.

Peppers shared post-game he recognized two tells that Buffalo would open with a play-action pass. Both tells pertained to Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis, who motioned closer to the formation before the snap.

Typically, that motion indicates an incoming run-block but, Peppers explained, Davis stopped short of his usual run-blocking landmark. Davis' body language also betrayed his true intentions, as he moved too casually for a player who's job was supposedly to crack a defensive end.

What changed for Mac Jones in Patriots’ first game-winning drive in over two years

"(Davis) is a point-of-attack blocker, but he doesn't block from that alignment. So (the Bills) wanted me to think that Davis was going to (block), so they can hit the (route) behind him," Peppers explained. "So I kind of played into that, then took away the first read. ... Once (Allen) saw me take away the flat, I waited for him to look off left. And when once I see that shoulder go (up), I opened up and he threw it right to me."

After Peppers' pick, Jones spearheaded a touchdown drive. The Patriots led 10-0.

"I think that kind of shocked them," Jones said, "and that set the tempo for the team."

Meanwhile, Belichick's beloved special teams — ranked 32nd by DVOA entering kickoff — delivered on every front.

The Patriots enjoyed a seven-yard advantage in average starting field position. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland went 3-for-3 on field goal attempts, including a 49-yarder in the second half. Bryce Baringer dropped both his punts inside Buffalo's 20. Another rookie, Demario Douglas, zipped one punt back 25 yards to set up a scoring drive.

Of course Buffalo, which had beaten the Patriots in six of their last seven meetings, did not relent. Allen cruised to back-to-back touchdowns in the fourth quarter that dropped Jones in a 3-point deficit with less than two minutes left. No one, not even the wise-cracking Vrabel, could cut through the tension that stretched across Gillette Stadium in those moments.

Only victory could do that. And thanks to Jones' steady hand and sound play-calls that exploited Buffalo's poor tackling, it did.

"I'm proud of the way we competed today, the way we overcame adversity," Pats captain and center David Andrews said. "For me, that's kind of the biggest thing."

At the end of a weekend spent celebrating the franchise's past and briefly reliving it, players and coaches spilled onto the field in celebration. The crowd relished a rekindled joy it hadn't known in years. All the while, a Bruce Springsteen classic rang out over the stadium speakers:

"And I hope when I get old I don't sit around thinking about it

But I probably will

Yeah, just sitting back, trying to recapture

A little of the glory, yeah

Well time slips away and leaves you with nothing, mister

But boring stories of ...

Glory Days"

The Bills (4-2) enter Foxboro as one of the NFL’s best teams, while the Pats (1-5) continue to flounder in a way few expected. Offensively, the Patriots snapped their games-long touchdown drought last week at Las Vegas, but again fell into an early hole. Staying competitive through the first half will be non-negotiable versus Buffalo, which has averaged more than 30 points per game against Bill Belichick’s defense the last three seasons.

If the Pats fall behind by two scores, they’re done. But if they can create a couple turnovers, and win on the margins, they could find life at an unexpected time in an unforeseen season.

Here’s what else to watch for Sunday:

When the Patriots run

Feed Zeke?

Ezekiel Elliott ended the aforementioned touchdown drought by punching in a 2-yard score at Las Vegas last weekend. On that drive, the Patriots powered their way downfield with four first-down runs that picked up 36 yards. It seems unlikely the Pats will find similar success versus an above-average Buffalo run defense, but Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson must kill clock for them to have a chance.

And there is one weak spot in Buffalo’s front: the middle. The Bills are allowing a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry inside the tackles, per Sports Info. Solutions. Look for the Pats to pound away at the middle, especially with the return of right guard Mike Onwenu, who’s been recovering from an ankle injury.

If Onwenu can move well enough, the Patriots might also return to the one run scheme — counter — that’s yielded consistent gains. On just six carries, the offense has averaged 5.7 yards per counter run, more than any other base run in the playbook. If the Pats call counter, watch for Onwenu or the starting left guard to pull in the direction of the play and block an unblocked defender at the end of the line of scrimmage.

When the Patriots pass

Step one: block. Step two: pray.

The Bills boast the NFL’s best pass rush, according to both Mac Jones and Bill Belichick. They’re deep on the edge and the interior, where defensive tackle Ed Oliver is “as good as anybody we’ll play,” per Belichick. Last week, Jones averaged 2.2 seconds from snap to throw at Las Vegas, the fastest time for any quarterback in the NFL.

How Patriots are using Malik Cunningham in practice ahead of Bills game

It reasons the Patriots will draw up another game plan that emphasizes their quick passing game and forces Buffalo to tackle in space (the Bills' tackling ranks 29th, per Pro Football Focus). Returning rookie receiver Demario Douglas should help there, as would a few downfield run-pass-options (RPOs). Buffalo is highly inexperienced at linebacker, where they should be vulnerable to those plays that force a defender to pick between defending a run or pass.

Their inconsistent linebacker play should also invite targets for tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Then again, the same could be said of the Raiders last week, and Henry and Gesicki combined for just four catches.

Meanwhile, Kendrick Bourne is coming off his best game of the season (10 catches for 89 yards), and figures to be a focal point so long as fellow receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker continue to underwhelm.

When the Bills run

In the offseason, Buffalo's front office emphasized building out its running game to better prepare themselves for playoff football. Among other moves, the Bills signed ex-Patriots running back Damien Harris and bolstered their offensive line.

Patriots QB Mac Jones sticking with routine despite early-season struggles

While Harris will miss Sunday's game with a neck sprain, Buffalo shouldn't lose too much steam on the ground. The Bills rank among the NFL's 10 best rushing offenses by most metrics, thanks to second-year back James Cook making a leap and quarterback Josh Allen powering through defenders at 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds. Cook leads the team with 363 rushing yards at a 4.8 yards per carry average.

Defensively, the Patriots will need linebackers Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai to reinforce a banged-up front. Last week, Tavai replaced rookie defensive lineman Keion White (concussion) on one edge, while Bentley manned the middle with defensive tackles Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy. Winning the line of scrimmage is a must for a Patriots defense down several defensive backs.

When the Bills pass

J.C. Jackson's return has helped stabilize a secondary that briefly lost its top four cornerbacks this season. Last week, Jackson made his first start for the Patriots since being traded and played 96% of the team's snaps.

But Jackson will need to do more than take the field against Buffalo. He must overcome the most difficult matchup of his career.

Bills All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs has roasted Jackson in all their recent matchups. Diggs is averaging more than six catches and 88 yards per game versus New England. He's also scored six touchdowns in those seven meetings.

On the season, Diggs has more than double the catches (49) of any other Bills player, including second-leading receiver Gabriel Davis. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Davis represents a size mismatch for any Pats defensive back, sans their safeties. Thus, expect the Patriots to again execute a zone-heavy game plan with a strong dose of Cover 2 to protect against Allen's deep ball.

Up front, they'll also need to generate more pressure on Allen than they have against any quarterback in almost a month. Ever since Matt Judon was lost to a torn bicep tendon, the Patriots have collected two sacks and failed to crack a 25% pressure rate in a single game.

A laughingstock.

A doormat the Patriots, Dolphins and even Jets wiped their feet on during the season. No team failed quite like the Bills, a little brother’s little brother with a long history of bad quarterbacks, fumbled coaching searches and lost drafts.

From 2001-19, whenever Tom Brady started and finished a game against Buffalo, the Patriots won. During one stretch spanning the late 2000s and early 2010s, the Pats beat the Bills 15 straight times. In all, the Patriots went 34-4 in the division series during the Brady era.

But at the end, Buffalo quietly began to gain significant ground. Head coach Sean McDermott arrived in 2017, and Brady threw more interceptions than touchdowns against McDermott’s defense over his last three seasons.

Then Brady left, and Josh Allen, after struggling in his initial battles with Bill Belichick, took over. Over the past three years, Allen has tossed 18 touchdowns to two interceptions against the Patriots. The Bills have gone 6-1, averaging more than 30 points per game.

Like Brady, there is no solution for Allen, a modern master of the quarterback position. Aside from Allen’s unprecedented development, Buffalo has steadily built one of the league’s best rosters around him. Belichick was asked about that process Wednesday.

“You’re talking about a period of years here, but right now, they’re really a well-balanced team,” Belichick began Wednesday.

Then he hit on the Bills’ highly rated special teams, their defense that generates turnovers and an offense stocked with weapons. Finally, Belichick nailed the dismount.

“I mean, they brought basically the same team back two years in a row,” he said. “They haven’t made a lot of changes in the last two years.”

Bingo. Continuity.

In the same way the Patriots could run it back around Brady and Belichick and remain competitive year after year, Buffalo now enjoys the fruits of nailing any franchise’s two most important decisions and years of roster-building around them. Allen was a risk, a developmental prospect refined over three years by former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, now the Giants head coach.

Once Allen proved worthy of further investment, the Bills traded for ex-Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs in March 2020. He was the missing piece for an offense that had grown into a steady, if unspectacular, unit in 2019. Diggs elevated Buffalo in a way only a true No. 1 wide receiver can.

“They’re a very explosive team,” Pats linebacker Jahlani Tavai said. “They have (Stefon) Diggs on the outside, and they have a really strong running game.”

Diggs made the All-Pro Team in his debut season and has earned a Pro Bowl nod every year since. His acquisition represents the starkest difference between the Patriots’ building strategy around Mac Jones and how the Bills invest in Allen’s supporting cast. Though, there are similarities, including mid-level veteran signings in free agency.

Patriots need to find Demario Douglas more snaps coming off of injury

Offensively, Buffalo also ran a game-plan operation under Daboll, an ex-Patriots assistant, meaning they adapted their schemes each week to attack specific weaknesses in their next opponent. Under Daboll and his successor, Ken Dorsey, the Bills have gashed Belichick's defense more deeply and more consistently than any other opponent to face him as a head coach. The Pats felt this shift in 2019, the beginning of their end and the dawn of Buffalo's current era.

From ex-Patriots linebacker Dont'a Hightower in December of that season: “I think constantly whenever we play Buffalo — especially defensively — they always have a new wrinkle. And I mean, the skill players that they have and the offensive line that they have, the way that they’re built, it’s built to be in this division. It’s built to play us.”

In the draft, the Bills separated themselves by hitting on virtually every top pick under McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane. Before Allen, Buffalo selected cornerback Tre'Davious White, a two-time Pro Bowler, in 2017. Then came Allen, and in 2019, they selected defensive tackle Ed Oliver, whom Belichick described this week as "as good as anybody we’ll play."

In consecutive years, the Bills added defensive linemen A.J. Epenesa and Gregory Rousseau with their top picks, now cornerstones of the NFL's best pass rush. While 2022 first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam is trending toward bust territory, Buffalo unequivocally hit on 2022 second-round running back James Cook, one of the league's most impressive young rushers. Another mid-round pick from that draft, linebacker Terrel Bernard, is the Bills' leading tackler, while rookie first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid ranks third in receptions, behind Diggs and another one-time mid-round pick, Gabriel Davis.

By contrast, the Patriots roster one player from their 2016 and 2017 draft classes combined. They whiffed on 2018 first-rounders Sony Michel and Isaiah Wynn, cut ties with every draft pick from 2019 and almost half of their 2020 class is now out of the league. Things began to turn in 2021, when the Pats landed Mac Jones, Christian Barmore and Rhamondre Stevenson, but early returns on their 2022 haul are discouraging.

Without a young core and question marks at quarterback and on their coaching staff, the Patriots are the team they used to beat like a punching bag for all those years. And the results bear it out.

As of Friday night, the Bills were 8.5-point favorites, and if that holds, they will be heaviest favorites to ever walk into Gillette Stadium. How soon the Pats can reverse roles with Buffalo will depend on the answers to the aforementioned questions, and perhaps a little bit more free-agent spending.

Buffalo is scheduled to rank in the top 10 for cash spending every season through 2026, while the Patriots sit 30th, 31st and 32nd and 29th over the next four years.

Scarnecchia thankful

On Friday afternoon, the eve of his induction into the Patriots Hall of Fame, former offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia reflected on his 34-year career in New England.

"(I) never thought anything like this would ever happen to me," he told reporters.

Scarnecchia's tenure pre-dated Belichick's hiring as head coach and included five Super Bowl wins. Before becoming Belichick's top assistant and O-line coach in 2000, Scarnecchia coached in New England from 1982-88, then returned to work under former Patriots head coaches Dick MacPherson, Bill Parcells and Pete Carroll.

Bill Belichick honors Dante Scarnecchia, Mike Vrabel ahead of Patriots Hall of Fame ceremony

Scarnecchia counted the Patriots' introduction as a team at Super Bowl XXXVI in February 2002 among his favorite memories. Of all the challenges Scarnecchia helped the Patriots' offensive line overcome, he highlighted their victory in Super Bowl XXXVIII over the Panthers in February 2004. He remembered Carolina's defensive line being loaded with first-round picks, and his offensive line, specifically left guard Russ Hochstein, receiving outside criticism before kickoff.

"That was one of those games against Carolina where we had to really be at our best," he said. "I remember specifically, Russ Hochstein started that game for us. And Warren Sapp went on TV and beat (Hochstein) up really bad because he had been in Tampa, and they cut him and we claimed him because I really liked the way Russ played football in Nebraska. And (Hochstein) started that game.

"And Sapp beat him up on Wednesday night, all the players were concerned about it. Shoot, he went out there and played a great game. That was special. That was really special."

As for the team's current offensive line, one of the NFL's worst, Scarnecchia told 98.5 The Sports Hub on Friday morning: "It's just a lack of continuity, and that's very important. And I think that's the biggest problem, and hopefully, hopefully, they can get that resolved. Hopefully they can get Mac (Jones) into a comfort level and a confidence level that he's had in his three years here, at times."

Pats' practice change

For a second straight week, the Patriots shifted their practice scheduled to include a walkthrough on Tuesday.

Bill Belichick explained the change as an adjustment to the team's travel schedule returning from Las Vegas last weekend. The week before that, Belichick opted to give players the day off following their 34-0 beatdown at the hands of the Saints.

Regardless of the reason, Pats wide receiver Kendrick Bourne said this week he appreciated the change.

"Practicing on Tuesdays has been new for us, but for me personally, but I think it's good for us," Bourne said. "Everybody's coming out there with the right mentality, and it's been two days of some good work. You can just feel the energy, guys are going hard. Shout-out to our O-line today, it was kind of like their damn pads, and I feel like they were intense today, and I like that energy from them because I feel like we feed off them. So to see them start good and have a good day, I feel like the energy is right out there."

Quote of the Week

"Football is a big part of my life, but I also have other parts of my life, you know? I think I’m definitely sometimes misconstrued, or whatever, but I just try to be Mac." — Mac Jones on how he believes he's related to Patriots fans.

Among the big names are tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jonathan Jones  and wide receivers Demario Douglas and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Henry and Jones were upgraded to limited participation in Friday’s practice. Left tackle Trent Brown told the Herald he will play, despite being listed as questionable with a chest injury that limited him the past two days.

In Buffalo, the Bills ruled out defensive tackle Ed Oliver and removed quarterback Josh Allen from their injury report.

Both teams’ complete injury reports are below.

NEW ENGLAND

Out

OL Riley Reiff, Knee

LB Josh Uche, Knee

DL Keion White, Concussion

Questionable

TE Hunter Henry, Ankle

CB Jonathan Jones, Knee

OT Trent Brown, Chest

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Concussion

C David Andrews, Ankle

DL Christian Barmore, Knee

DB Cody Davis, Knee

WR Demario Douglas, Concussion

S Kyle Dugger, Foot

DL Trey Flowers, Foot

DL Davon Godchaux, Ankle

DB Jack Jones, Hamstring

OL Mike Onwenu, Ankle

G Cole Strange, Knee

CB Shaun Wade, Shoulder

WR Kayshon Boutte, Hamstring

BUFFALO

Out

TE Quintin Morris, Ankle

DT Ed Oliver, Toe

Questionable

DB Cam Lewis, Shoulder

Outside linebacker Josh Uche, defensive lineman Keion White and offensive tackle Riley Reiff were absent, indicating they will miss Sunday’s game after sitting out all three practices this week.

Tight end Hunter Henry (ankle) and cornerback Jonathan Jones (ankle) were non-participants on Wednesday and Thursday, but took the field to start Friday’s practice. It’s unclear whether they will be able to suit up against Buffalo.

The Patriots will release their final injury report after 4 p.m. Friday.

The media.

During a private production meeting before a Patriots-Bills game on Monday Night Football, Belichick dismissed Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen as an MVP candidate to ESPN. The suggestion alone apparently made him animated.

“There was no question that Bill really got fired up when talking to him about potentially being swept, Josh Allen being one of the MVP favorites,” added Louis Riddick revealed on the December 2020 broadcast. “He was not having any of it.”

Yeah, about that.

Not only did Allen rip the Patriots that night in a 38-9 rout, passing for 320 yards, four touchdowns and no picks, he hasn’t stopped. Allen is now universally recognized as one of the game’s greats. In the process, he’s become something more: Belichick-proof.

Against Belichick, Allen owns the highest passer rating of any quarterback to make more than five career starts or attempt at least 200 passes versus his defense. He’s 6-1 versus the Patriots the past three years, during which time Buffalo has averaged more than 30 points per game. Last season, the Bills became the first team to beat the Pats by 10 or more points in three consecutive games since Belichick took over in 2000.

But enough about passer rating, a flawed, archaic metric, and win-loss record, a measure of team success, not quarterback play. Let’s dive deeper.

Over the last three seasons, Belichick has thrown every X and every O at Allen: disguised zone coverages, man-blitzes, zone blitzes, simulated pressures, three-man rushes, quarterback spies. He’s proven scheme-proof in the way Tom Brady did lording over Buffalo for two decades. Allen’s ascension is among the chief reasons the Pats and Bills have switched places within the division.

No quarterback has thwarted Belichick as consistently and ruthlessly as Allen. He is at the heart of Belichick’s heartache.

Unlike Brady, but akin to all modern stars, Allen is a master inside the pocket and on the run. Armed with 4.7 speed at 240 pounds, he can eat up free yards on scrambles or escape closing pockets to buy his receivers more time to uncover. His escapability powered Buffalo’s most memorable wins over the Patriots in recent years.

In 2021, after Belichick’s privately dismissed Allen, the Bills famously didn’t punt in the last two of their three meetings with the Pats. Over a 33-21 regular-season win and 47-17 thumping in the Wild Card round, three-quarters of Allen’s dropbacks lasted 2.5 seconds or longer, per Pro Football Focus. Often, this time and place becomes a danger zone for quarterbacks, who are fated for a coverage sack or bad decision.

Not Allen.

He converted a first down on more than half these plays, an unprecedented conversion rate for even the greatest offenses in NFL history. He also threw an accurate pass on 84.8% of his attempts, per PFF, for five touchdowns and zero interceptions. As a runner, he scrambled five times for 103 rushing yards.

Patriots’ Jabrill Peppers received special attention from Bill Belichick this week

So naturally last season, the Pats emphasized containing Allen and keeping him inside the pocket, where he would be forced to confront Belichick's schemes on Belichick's time instead of slipping out and playing backyard ball. Instead, Allen shoved humble pie down their throats.

Over two regular-season meetings, the Bills outscored the Patriots by 26. Allen went 27-of-42 for 360 yards, five touchdowns and an interception on longer-developing pass plays, which accounted for 70% of all his dropbacks. Buffalo played on Allen's time, and marched to the playoffs.

At 4-2, Allen has again primed himself for the MVP discussion. The Bills are among the league's most devastating offensive teams. Allen ranks second in the NFL by passing touchdowns and QBR.

He has been fully weaponized, and should inflict more damage Sunday in Foxboro. If the 8.5-point spread holds through kickoff, Allen and Co. will become the largest road favorites to ever kick off inside Gillette Stadium; perhaps the best measure of how the gap has widened between Buffalo and the Patriots.

To hurry Allen without Pro Bowl pass rusher Matt Judon and likely Josh Uche (who's dealing with a knee injury), the Patriots must blitz. The good news is, they're already blitzing at the second-highest rate in the league to protect a hurting secondary.

The bad news?

Allen owns a sparkling 109.1 passer rating against the blitz this season, seventh-highest in the league.

Meaning before he even sits down at the table, Belichick might already be out of cards.