The Red Sox outfield played out simultaneously as expected and unexpectedly in 2023.
Like the team overall, the outfield was a mixed bag. Unlike the roster as a whole however, which is a giant question mark heading into the offseason, the outfield is set up for success for several seasons to come.
After making a bold declaration at spring training, Alex Verdugo followed through with a strong defensive campaign. He led the Red Sox with plus-9 Defensive Runs Saved, and ranked in the 95th MLB percentile in arm strength. His plus-1 Outs Above Average tied for sixth among Major League right fielders, an improvement over minus-1 OAA in two seasons prior.
Unfortunately, the 27-year-old still struggled to maintain consistency at the plate. There was a slight increase in power – he matched his career-high 13 home runs – and his walk rate jumped to 7.5 percent, up from 6.5-percent in 2022. However, his batting average and on-base percentage dropped while his strikeout rate climbed to 15.5 percent, a full 2.1 percent increase over last season, and he struck out seven more times in 10 fewer games. Though he was still in the 88th MLB percentile in K%, it can’t be described as an improvement.
Verdugo hit .290 with an .817 OPS in the first half of the season (83 games). That, coupled with a remaining year of club control, made him a prime trade candidate at the deadline. Teams were interested, and the Red Sox signaled that they were open to hearing offers, even discussing a swap with the Yankees. Ultimately, they hung onto him and watched as he hit just .225 with a .635 OPS in his remaining 59 games.
Though his trade value is lower, Red Sox may end up trading Verdugo this offseason; there’s been no indication he’ll get the extension he approached them about last February. He’ll be a free agent next fall, and they have enough club-controlled talent to go on without him. Alex Cora also benched him multiple times throughout the season for various reasons, including for lack of hustle and arriving several hours late, which may turn interested teams away.
Meanwhile, Masataka Yoshida’s “rookie” year was one of adjustments, but he handled the jump from Nippon to the Majors fairly well. He hit .289 with a .338 on-base percentage, collecting 155 hits, 33 doubles, three triples and 15 home runs in 140 games. He scored 71 times, drove in 72, and stole eight bases.
Where he struggled was plate discipline. Known for walking (427) more than he struck out (307) in the NPB, Yoshida only drew 34 walks to 81 strikeouts. That may not be good enough by his own standards, but it still put him in the 93rd MLB percentile in K%.
Yoshida didn’t exactly excel defensively, though he was known as a bat-first player before the Red Sox signed him. He was worth minus-9 OAA, minus-4 DRS, and ranked in the 52nd MLB percentile in arm strength. Learning the complexities of the Green Monster will be an ongoing process.
Managing the unfamiliar 162-game workload and frequent travel was a key issue for Yoshida, who wasn’t accustomed to jet lag; the entire NPB shares the same time zone, with no team farther away than a three and a half hour flight. As summer turned into fall, it became clear he was losing steam. Over 70 games between May 1 and July 31, he hit .313/.364/.487. From Aug. 1 on, his numbers dropped significantly, only slashing .257/.276/.371 over his final 47 games.
Adam Duvall, in Boston on a one-year deal, got off to a scorching start that came to a screeching halt in the form of a broken wrist eight games in. He returned exactly two months later, and still managed to play 92 games and hit 21 home runs. He was a strong addition to the clubhouse, and though they may not need to sign another outfielder for next year, his veteran presence was valuable to a young department.
In Duvall’s absence, Jarren Duran made the most of a bad situation. His turnaround, after struggling through two partial, up-and-down seasons between the Majors and Triple-A, was one of the most uplifiting stories of the season. He’d debuted in 2021 and hit .219 with a .622 OPS over 91 career games between his first two seasons, struggling both offensively and defensively.
Duran didn’t make the Red Sox Opening Day roster, but quickly rose to the occasion when called up in mid-April. He hit .295 with a .828 OPS over 102 games, collecting 98 hits, 34 doubles, two triples, eight home runs, 46 runs, and 40 RBI. He led the roster with 24 stolen bases, led qualified Boston batters in average, and his doubles tied Rafael Devers for second on the team (though Devers played 51 more games). According to Stathead, Duran is the ninth player in franchise history to collect as many as 34 doubles and 24 steals in a season but the first to reach those totals within 102 games.
Though his defense was about average – 55th percentile in OAA, 61st percentile in arm strength, he and Duvall were each worth minus-5 DRS – Duran compensated with fast footwork; his 29.5 Sprint Speed ranked in the 96th percentile. Even though turf toe and surgery cut his campaign short, his was one of the most impressive turnarounds by a Red Sox player in recent history.
Rob Refsnyder’s overall offensive numbers took a dip in his second Red Sox season, but he continued to slay southpaws. He only hit .159 with a .466 against right-handed pitchers, but demolished lefties to the tune of a .308 average and .828 OPS, and he drew more walks than he struck out against them. The Red Sox have already bypassed his final year of arbitration by extending the versatile defender for $2 million in 2024 with a 2025 club option.
Towards the end of the summer, the Red Sox called up top outfield prospects Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela within a week of one another, and each made an impact. Cora raved about Abreu’s power in the early days of spring training, and the 24-year-old outfielder lived up to the hype, hitting .316 with a .862 OPS in 28 big-league games, collecting 24 hits, six doubles, and a pair of home runs.
The Red Sox saw Rafaela as a Major League-caliber defender long before they called him up on Aug. 28. He’s considered a future perennial Gold Glove center fielder. He can also play shortstop and second base, and spent time at all three positions. He was worth plus-2 OAA, the third-best mark on the roster. Abreu, known more for his bat, also had plus-1 OAA and plus-2 DRS.
Plate discipline has been the sticking point throughout Rafaela’s minor league career, but the 23-year-old Curaçao native managed 20 hits, six doubles, and two home runs in his 28 games. He and Abreu stole three bases, and were the first two Red Sox rookies to collect five or more doubles in their first 18 career games since Sam Travis in 2017.
The Red Sox enter the offseason with an outfield full of promising young talent, most of whom are under club control for many years to come. Meaning they can devote this offseason to bringing in some starting pitching.
