When all is said and done, the reason the Red Sox likely won’t make the playoffs is because they don’t have enough starting pitching.
Brayan Bello has been terrific and James Paxton successfully put his injury woes behind him, but the rest of the rotation has failed to meet expectations.
Chris Sale got hurt again. Corey Kluber was a complete bust. Garrett Whitlock keeps breaking down and failed to take the next step as a starter. Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford haven’t shown they can reliably pitch deeper than five innings. Nick Pivetta and Chris Murphy are better suited to pitch in relief.
The rotation’s collective struggles put a heavy strain on the bullpen, and over the past two weeks the staff finally collapsed as the workload proved too great. Now the Red Sox are facing a second straight September of meaningless baseball, and if the club hopes to turn things around in 2024, it’s obvious what they’ll have to do.
Luckily, if there were ever an offseason to focus on starting pitching, this is it.
As it stands now there will be loads of starting pitching available on the free agent market. Even putting aside Shohei Ohtani, who likely won’t pitch next season as he deals with the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, there are at least a dozen arms who could comfortably slot in as a top of the rotation starter on next year’s team.
The Red Sox will also have a ton of money to spend this offseason. According to the indispensable @RedSoxPayroll on X (formerly Twitter), the club is projected to enter the winter $43 million below next season’s luxury tax threshold of $237 million. Having dipped under the threshold this season to reset their tax penalties, there’s no reason the Red Sox shouldn’t push into the tax if it means getting guys who could elevate this group into an actual championship contender.
Ideally, the Red Sox will sign at least a pair of starting pitchers and go into next season with those two atop the rotation alongside Sale, Bello and one of Whitlock, Houck or Crawford as the No. 5 man. Here are some of the top starters expected to hit the market this offseason.
Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
The biggest problems Red Sox starters have had these past few years is reliability and durability, and Nola brings both in spades. Nola is on track to make every start for the sixth consecutive season, and if he’s able to do that it’s possible he could also top 200 innings for the fourth time as well. To put that in perspective, the Red Sox haven’t had a starter reach 200 innings since Eduardo Rodriguez in 2019.
The 30-year-old Nola has a career 3.69 ERA and entered the weekend 12-8 with a 4.30 ERA over 167.1 innings and 27 starts in 2023. He also played an integral role in Philadelphia’s run to the World Series last fall, picking up crucial wins over St. Louis in the Wild Card round and Atlanta in the NLDS.
Nola may not be a true ace, but he’s a proven workhorse who is capable of carrying any pitching staff he’s a part of. He’ll be in high demand this offseason and the Red Sox would be smart to give him a close look.
Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Urias is in the midst of something of a down year, but over the past few years he’s consistently ranked among the best young pitchers in baseball.
Having originally broken into the bigs as a 19-year-old in 2016, Urias has been a fixture of Los Angeles’ starting rotation since 2020 and recorded the final out of that fall’s World Series. Last season he led the NL with a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings and has a 3.07 ERA for his career, though this year he’s comparatively struggled, posting a 4.41 ERA over 112.1 innings entering Friday night’s start. Strangely, he’s been dominant at home (2.30 ERA in 10 starts) but horrible on the road (7.07, 10), a troubling development that could affect his free agency.
Still, Urias is only 27 and should be entering the prime of his career. You don’t see many pitchers with his track record hitting free agency that young, so he’ll be a highly coveted arm this winter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Orix Buffaloes
Expect to hear this name come up a lot in the coming months.
Yamamoto might be the best pitcher in the world not currently playing in Major League Baseball. The 25-year-old right-hander has posted video game numbers in Japan ever since breaking onto the professional scene as a teenager, and this winter he’s expected to make his long-awaited jump to MLB.
Yamamoto is the two-time reigning Pacific League MVP and Sawamura Award winner, Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young, and he’s on track to win both for the third straight year. As of this writing, Yamamoto was 13-5 with a 1.34 ERA and 135 strikeouts over 134 innings, and in seven seasons he’s posted a 1.77 ERA over 930.2 career innings.
As far as how his stuff will translate to the big leagues, scouts believe he has what it takes to dominate. His fastball sits mid-90s and tops out at 99, and he also boasts a great splitter along with a cutter and curveball. Crucially, his control is excellent, and this summer he’s posted a ridiculous 0.896 walks and hits per innings pitched mark.
The Red Sox are known to have extensively scouted Yamamoto. He is a former teammate of Masataka Yoshida, so the club would have seen him pitch plenty while scouting the future Boston outfielder, and Red Sox scouts have reportedly been seen at his recent starts, along with officials from numerous other MLB clubs.
Though it’s not known what Yamamoto’s MLB preferences might be, the Red Sox have a strong track record with Japanese pitchers and are the only club who could offer the chance to reunite with a former Orix Buffaloes teammate. If the Red Sox make a serious offer they should be strong contenders to land the rising star.
Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres
A former Cy Young winner with Tampa Bay, Snell hasn’t maintained the level of dominance he displayed in 2018 but has re-established himself as a top of the rotation arm since joining San Diego.
Now 30, Snell leads all of MLB with a 2.60 ERA and has also struck out 193 batters over 149 innings. He’s on track to make all 32 starts and has been a notable bright spot amid what has otherwise been a disastrous season for the Padres.
Snell’s game has some warts. He leads MLB with 85 walks, 12 wild pitches and 6.2 hits per nine innings, so his command could obviously use some work, but in eight big league seasons he’s managed a 3.28 career ERA over 961.2 innings. That would certainly be an improvement over a lot of what Boston has gotten from its starters these past few years.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Boy, this has been a strange week for Giolito, huh?
Acquired at the trade deadline by the Los Angeles Angels barely a month ago, Giolito and five other pending free agents were unceremoniously placed on waivers this week in a frank admission by the Angels that their decision to buy at the trade deadline was a mistake. He was subsequently claimed by the Cleveland Guardians and will now have the opportunity to help his new club chase down the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.
He also has a chance to reinvigorate his looming free agency.
Putting aside his recent struggles in Los Angeles, Giolito was one of the most highly coveted arms at the deadline for a reason. Like Nola, Giolito has been a workhorse and rarely missed a start over the past six seasons. This year he could potentially set a new career-high in innings (previous best was 178.2 in 2021), and at 29 he’ll be among the younger starters set to hit the open market this winter.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Given that he’ll be 34 by next season, Gray is definitely on the older side, but the veteran right-hander is also enjoying arguably the best season of his career and has been rock solid for five years straight.
This year Gray has emerged as Minnesota’s ace, and as of this writing he leads the AL with a 2.92 ERA over 157 innings. He’s on track to make every start and his 4.7 wins above replacement ranks second in the league behind only Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole.
If the Red Sox aren’t able to land one of the top arms or would prefer to avoid a five- to six-year commitment, Gray could represent an attractive alternative.
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Could a reunion with Rodriguez be in the cards? It’s unlikely, but the possibility shouldn’t be ruled out.
Rodriguez is in the second year of his five-year, $77 million deal he signed with Detroit after the 2021 season. The left-hander’s first season with the Tigers was marked by struggles on the mound and in his personal life, but this year Rodriguez has gotten back to form and boasted a 3.21 ERA over 117.2 innings entering his start Friday night.
Rodriguez has an opt-out provision in his contract that he is sure to exercise this offseason, and given that he’s already been extended a qualifying offer in his career once before, he can hit free agency with no strings attached as one of the top arms on the market this winter.
For opting out to be worthwhile, Rodriguez will need to land a deal greater than the three years, $49 million left on his current contract. Still only 30, it’s a safe bet Rodriguez will comfortably clear those totals, so if Boston does decide it wants E-Rod back, it’ll have to be willing to pay.
